Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Market outlook to 2025 and beyond
In recognition of SAF’s role in the future of aviation, and potential for rapidly demand growth, we brought together a team of experts from agriculture, energy and forest markets to explore the outlook to 2025, answering key questions.
The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is entering a period of unprecedented growth. It has emerged as a viable means to decarbonize aviation. Today, SAF prices are 2-3 times higher than its conventional jet fuel counterpart and is only produced by a handful of players, who will need to significantly ramp up production volume to meet this SAF demand.
Key questions addressed in the report:
- How will SAF demand grow to 2025?
- What is the SAF supply potential and cost for key raw materials, by region and globally?
- What will be the most important drivers of SAF demand?
- How is SAF made and what raw materials are required?
- Who are the main producers, and owners of projects for new capacity?
This study will help you and your business to:
- Size up the market – Translate latest regulatory announcements and air travel projections into future size of SAF market
- See the whole supply chain – Understand the existing supply chain and supply challenges
- Get a financer’s view – Understand the factors in financing biorefinery projects
- Seize future opportunities – Identify future leading SAF producers and profile biorefinery projects by player, partner, financier, capacity growth, and process technology
- Plan for supply fluctuations – Anticipate the cost impact of additional demand for raw materials, such as used cooking oil, soybean, sugarcane, corn grain, wood biomass, agricultural residues from crop and food processing
- Find the best solution – Compare the different supply chains and future cost of each of the four main processes to produce SAF
Future success depends on maintaining cost advantage over electricity and hydrogen
Current operational production capacity will only deliver 3% of total demand in 2025. Project owners will be racing to secure feedstock volume and pricing that ensures SAF continues to be a cost effective means to reduced emissions from aviation. Used cooking oil (UCO), the primary feedstock for SAF, is expected to make up to 60% of production by 2025.
- Sustainable aviation fuel is taking off
- Many airlines have committed to net-zero emissions by 2050
- 7 out of 10 consumers say reducing emissions should be a top priority for aviation
- The European Union introduced ReFuelEU Aviation Initiative in 2021 to reduce emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, which will accelerate the shift to renewable sources of energy
- The US is building on state-level legislation in WA, CA, OR. The federal mandate and tax rebate is moving to the Senate after passing in the House
Request more information
Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry on the pricing methodology for its European PIX Paper indices via an open consultation process between March 13 and April 10, 2025. This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process. Full details of the prices covered by this consultation can be found here. No […]
The European pulp and paper (P&P) industry is struggling to assess the possible impact of tariffs. First, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% blanket tariff on all goods imported to the US. Additionally, he announced higher “reciprocal” tariffs with those he deemed worst offenders. This included a 20% tariff on EU goods. He later […]
Due to a procedural error, the latest prices for the US Northeast region was not incorporated into the comparative prices for the quarter. This impacted the calculations for the three markets below. FP-CHP-0036 Chips, Hardwood, delivered US Northeast, Comparative Regional Price, USD/GT, which was published incorrectly at $50 per gross ton. This has been corrected […]
North American lumber industry struggles with closures, tariffs and post-pandemic demand shift
On April 2, 2025, US President Trump announced comprehensive import tariffs that had long been feared. According to Trump, the goal is to restructure US trade policy by implementing extensive tariffs, collectively called the “Liberation Day” tariffs. This initiative introduced a universal 10% tariff on all imports, effective April 5, 2025, with additional country-specific tariffs […]
This consultation, which is open until May 11, 2025, seeks to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under indexation, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes all elements of our pricing process, our price specifications, and publication frequency. You can […]
Trading in most markets stalled after Wednesday’s announcement that lumber imports from Canada would be exempt from the newly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration. The most notable immediate impact was seen in lumber futures, where prices tumbled more than $50 on Thursday. In most physical markets, prices adjusted mildly in both directions. While digesting […]
Global pulp markets were once again upended by new tariffs that went into effect at midnight on Thursday April 3. The announcement came hours after US President Donald Trump held a long-awaited press conference at the White House. In an event he for weeks had billed as “Liberation Day,” he announced a “final decision” on […]
The tissue industry has faced tight margins in recent years due to rising production costs and limited capacity to pass on costs to the consumer, supporting consolidation and integration movements globally
Keeping up to date in the ever-shifting landscape of the forest industry is crucial for professionals to make sense of the market