Copper long-term forecast

Anticipate global market trends and understand supply/demand balances in the copper market

Our copper long-term forecasts are part of a set of products including long-term forecasts for lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, manganese sulfate and recycled materials

Copper is critical to the energy transition. It is already used widely in electrical cabling applications, and the greater need for wiring in electric vehicles (EVs) and in renewable electricity generation will add to consumption from other, traditional sectors.

In 2022, traditional sectors accounted for 92% of refined copper demand, with energy transition sectors, such as wind and solar power and EVs, accounting for the rest.

The Fastmarkets copper long-term forecast leverages our heritage in providing price data and market intelligence in the copper market. These insights are paired with economic modeling and data to provide market participants and investors with unmatched clarity on how the copper market will evolve in the next 10 years.

The 10-year copper long-term forecast includes:

  • Price forecasts for the LME copper price
  • Supply/demand balances for copper across the 10-year horizon
  • Demand analysis by energy transition sector (wind, solar and EVs) as well as for traditional uses
  • Access to analysts

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Browse copper insights and market coverage

Read some of the latest market coverage from our team of price reporters, researchers and editorial team from across the globe

Unlike most other commodities, cobalt is primarily a by-product – with 60% derived from copper and 38% from nickel – so how will changes in those markets change the picture for cobalt in the coming months following a year of price weakness and oversupply in 2024?

Copper recycling will become increasingly critical as the world transitions to cleaner energy systems, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a special report published early this week.

Chinese authorities officially announced that they will be expanding the range of permitted recycled copper and aluminium imports from mid-November, but market participants Fastmarkets spoke to at a conference this week are not convinced that this will mean more material will be imported into the country in the short run.

Unprecedented supply tightness and record low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are likely to challenge copper smelters in 2025 – even more than in 2024, sources told Fastmarkets.

Copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) are expected to remain low in 2025, with the market likely to remain tight, sources from across the industry told Fastmarkets.

Copper’s versatile applications and robust demand shape a complex global market outlook for 2024, with stable prices in the US, a mild recovery in China, and weak conditions in Europe, while Q4 forecasts suggest upward price pressure.

Understand supply/demand balances in the copper market over the next decade

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