An April survey conducted by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) found monthly shipments of recreational vehicles (RVs), mobile homes, and campers plummeted by nearly 50% year over year.
Total shipments for April 2023 were 31,216, down from 57,192 in the same period of 2022. Overall shipments of travel trailers fell 49.6% to 20,394 from 40,481 in the like period of 2022.
Anemic demand for fifth-wheel trailers contributed heavily to the decline. Year-to-date shipments of travel trailers were down 48.4%, a total of 5,421 in April 2023 from 10,515 a year prior.
Mobile home shipments fell 12.4% year over year, down to 17,748 compared to 20,857 in April 2022. Mini motorhome shipments were more resilient, dropping by just 111 units year over year. Fastmarkets economists are forecasting a gradual decline in mobile home production followed by a mild rebound beginning in August 2023.
New obstacles hinder sharp RV growth
Production and sales of RVs soared alongside other consumer goods during the pandemic. However, obstacles to ownership, such as rising interest rates, are evident in the RV shipment totals and echoed in the sectors of the lumber market that supply RV manufacturers.
“Our customers said the demand fell off a cliff when interest rates started rising. They now have tons of inventory and are focused on sustaining employees,” said a Canadian 2×3 producer, one of the essential items in framing RVs.
Prices for #1&2 2x3s reached all-time highs in May 2021. Specified loads of the item traded between $1,730-1,790 depending on length. During the next four months, prices fell off in large chunks to trade between $609-678. Prices surged back above $1,000 between October 2021 and March 2022.
For the next nine months, until January 2023, prices slid to near pre-pandemic levels. The decline was arrested by curtailment at a major Canadian producer. The production cut provided a brief price spike, but all lengths aside from 8-footers resumed declines in March.
One seller said the accumulations at the mill and elsewhere are growing once again. “The manufacturers got the false impression that people were falling in love with camping again because of the pandemic. But employers are encouraging workers to return to the office or reducing the opportunities to work remotely. All of that — on top of rising interest rates — is having an impact,” he said.
In March, Thor Industries announced a quarterly net revenue decrease of 40%, down from a record $2.35 billion in March 2022. Thor Industries is the parent company of the brands Airstream and CrossRoads among others.
A quote included with the summary of the RVIA’s April survey alludes to high inventory levels among RV sellers as well. “As consumers head to RV dealerships across the country this spring and summer, they will find many affordable options across all product types,” said Craig Kirby, RVIA president and CEO.
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