World grain production forecast cut by 2 million tonnes

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreases its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreased its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year by 2 million tonnes to 2.29 billion tonnes, which it said reflected recent dry weather.

The forecast remained above the 2022-23 marketing year when total grains production fell 39 million tonnes to 2.25 billion tonnes, with the rebound in current marketing year production driven by a projected larger corn crop.

The IGC raised their 2023-24 total grains consumption projection month-on-month by 4 million tonnes to 2.31 billion tonnes, driven by a large month-on-month increase in projected wheat consumption.

The report projects carryover stocks to fall further to 577 million tonnes from 580 million tonnes in the last report due to increased global consumption.

The grains trade projection for 2023-24 was raised unchanged from the previous update at 408 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes year-on-year.

Corn production

The corn production forecast was cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.21 billion tonnes, marking a 58 million tonnes increase year-on-year, while the consumption estimate was also cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.2 billion tonnes.

View our corn prices.

Wheat production

The IGC raised the wheat production projection for 2023-24 by 3 million tonnes from the previous report to 786 million tonnes, a 17 million tonnes decrease from the previous year, while wheat consumption forecasts were increased by 8 million tonnes from the last forecast to 803 million tonnes.

The wheat trade projection was set at 197 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the May report but down 6 million tonnes from last year.

In terms of oilseeds, the soybean production projection was cut by 1 million mt from the last update to 402 million tonnes.

Learn more about our wheat prices.

Soy production

The soybean consumption projection for 2023-24 was unchanged from the last report at 389 million tonnes, marking a 27 million tonnes increase from 2022-23.

Finally, the soybeans trade forecast was decreased by 1 million tonnes from the previous report to 172 million tonnes but still 4 million tonnes higher the last year’s figure.

For more information on the current grain market, take a look at our dedicated page for grain market news.

What to read next
The USDA's latest report shows that the US corn and soybean harvests have exceeded market expectations
Analyzing key drivers of demand and trade shaping soybean oil price and production trends
Speculators in the US corn market cut short positions, helping send the net short to the highest level since August 2023, while adding shorts in soybean and wheat contracts in the week to Tuesday October 29, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed late on Friday November 1.
Canada's grain and oilseed exports fell 38%, with significant declines in wheat and canola, despite strong soybean exports, according to the Canadian Grain Commission
Soybean oil premiums in Argentina have surged since the beginning of the month, to trade at one of the highest levels on record since Fastmarkets started following the market in 2018, with volumes for nearby deliveries pressured by Indian demand and a slow pace of farmer sales, according to sources
The USDA's latest crop progress report indicates strong advancement in the harvest of major crops, with corn and soybeans making significant strides.