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From January, in any battery electric vehicle (BEV) traded between the EU and the UK, 45% of the total electric vehicle parts and 50-60% of the battery pack must be sourced from either the UK or the EU, or a 10% tariff will be imposed.
The tariff is part of the post-Brexit EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) legislation that was signed in late 2020.
“Since the TCA was agreed in 2020,” the DBT told Fastmarkets, “manufacturers in both the UK and the EU have been affected by unforeseen and shared external shocks to supply chains, increasing the costs of key raw materials and battery components that cannot be sourced in the UK or EU. This is making it harder to meet the stricter 2024 rules.”
The TCA legislation has boosted the trade in electric vehicles (EVs) between the two regions, with the total bilateral trade valued at £15.3 billion ($19.4 billion) in 2022, according to figures published by the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
In the first half of 2023, 96% of new BEV registrations in the UK were imported vehicles. The EU accounts for the manufacturing of just under half of these imports, according to data published by the SMMT.
“We want to reach a joint solution with the EU, but our priority is to support our automotive sector,” the DBT said. “We have a long-standing and comprehensive program of support for the sector.”
The tariff will come into force at a time when the UK begins its transition to zero-emissions vehicles. From 2024, 22% of new cars sold in the UK must be zero-emissions, with targets rising annually to 100% by 2035.
New BEV registrations accounted for 16.3% of the market in SMMT data for the year to October 2023.
The SMMT also forecasts an average price increase of £3,400 ($4,300) per EU-made BEV imported into the UK, should the tariff be imposed.
In late October, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) wrote to EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to request that the current Rule of Origin (ROO) legislation remain in place until the end of 2026, in an attempt to avoid any requirement to pay the 10% tariff from January.
The letter asked for time to develop the battery industry in the EU, and argued that “the application of unachievable rules of origin will have significant direct consequences in terms of a potential loss of EV manufacturing output in Europe.”
An EU Commission official declined to respond to Fastmarkets’ request for comment, citing the sensitivity of the matter.
In June this year, Stefan Fuehring, the EU Commission’s head of the EU-UK TCA agreement, told a conference that the rules of origin legislation were “fit for purpose” and that any request for a change to the TCA deal would be a “long shot.”
With the EU accounting for 49.1% of all new BEVs registered in the UK in the first half of the year, the SMMT said in its October trade report that “any cost increase would act as a barrier to uptake, undermining the competitiveness [of EU and UK BEVs] in an important and growing market.”
China’s share of the UK’s BEV imports has increased rapidly in recent years, to 33.4% in the first half of 2023, from less than 2% in 2019, according to SMMT data.
In western Europe, registrations of Chinese branded BEVs had grown by 150% in the first two thirds of 2023, in a year-on-year comparison. This corresponded to an 8.4% market share of all new BEV registrations, according to data published by Schmidt Automotive Research.
“Chinese-made EVs are an answer, particularly in locations such as Central and Eastern Europe, where the average-income consumer cannot go near an EV due to [their] prices,” Fastmarkets energy transition analyst Phoebe O’Hara said.
“There have been a multitude of consumer surveys done in Europe this year to understand why EV sales are sluggish, and the main issue that comes up is affordability, followed by anxieties about [travel] range and charging [facilities],” she added.
Some carmakers were concerned that the UK tariff would result in increased uptake in Chinese BEVs in the EU and UK, because of a lower forecourt cost.
The European Commission was aware of these concerns, and in September it opened an investigation into whether to impose tariffs to “protect” EU carmakers from these cheaper Chinese BEV imports, which it said were benefiting from state subsidies. The current tariff rate on Chinese BEVs was 10%.
The EV market share for Chinese vehicles in Europe was forecast to increase to 18% by 2025, according to Fastmarkets’ research.
The EC investigation will cover all BEV imports from China rather than focusing on specific manufacturers. This will therefore include some western car brands that are produced in China, including vehicles made by Tesla, Renault and BMW. The investigation could last for as long as 13 months.
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