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The Fastmarkets team consistently monitors market shifts to provide timely, market-reflective and valuable insights. We’re committed to supporting informed decision-making with in-depth analysis of the key factors driving market trends, prices and forecasts in the battery raw materials market.
Lithium-ion battery supply chain depressedThe lithium-ion battery supply chain is still significantly depressed, particularly outside of China. While sentiment in China had remained relatively stable until recently, it has now shifted to a distinctly bearish outlook. This change could potentially be beneficial, as it may prompt China to take action to mitigate the worsening oversupply situation.
More regulation needed for lithium marketIn a move reminiscent of the copper industry, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested that China’s copper sector should regulate smelting capacity to prevent “competitive expansion.” This kind of regulation is precisely what is needed in the lithium market and other battery raw materials (BRMs).
Slight uptick in lithium and spodumene pricesLithium prices and spodumene prices have shown a slight uptick following the announcement that Pilbara Minerals plans to place its Ngungaju plant into care and maintenance. This decision is expected to decrease spodumene output by 100,000 tonnes in FY2025, which is roughly equivalent to 12,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
Pilbara Minerals’ production cut is a step in the right direction, but whereas the last time the Ngungaju plant was closed in October 2020, when it was operated by Altura Metals, it signalled the end of the bear market, this time its closure will not have the same effect. The cutback, an equivalent to around 12,500 tonnes LCE, on its own will not be enough to stop the oversupply – Fastmarkets’ forecasts is for a supply surplus of around 90,000 tonnes LCE next year, on top of this year’s 100,000+ tonnes surplus – so a lot more cuts are going to be needed. Will Adams, Fastmarkets
Pilbara Minerals’ production cut is a step in the right direction, but whereas the last time the Ngungaju plant was closed in October 2020, when it was operated by Altura Metals, it signalled the end of the bear market, this time its closure will not have the same effect. The cutback, an equivalent to around 12,500 tonnes LCE, on its own will not be enough to stop the oversupply – Fastmarkets’ forecasts is for a supply surplus of around 90,000 tonnes LCE next year, on top of this year’s 100,000+ tonnes surplus – so a lot more cuts are going to be needed.
Will Adams, Fastmarkets
Sustained record growth in cobalt productionThe Q3 production results from the world’s two largest cobalt producers indicate sustained record growth.
Rising copper prices incentivize cobalt productionCMOC has consistently increased production in Q3 2024, driven by rising copper prices that incentivize mining operations.
Cobalt sulfate market poised for oversupply in 2025Unless there is a notable increase in cobalt sulfate demand in 2025, the market is poised for another year of oversupply, which will likely exert further downward pressure on prices.
CMOC reported its January-September production was up 127% year on year, surpassing its own 2024 guidance in just three quarters. Given the world’s largest cobalt producer has more than doubled production highlights just what a dire situation the market is in. Fastmarkets expects the market to remain oversupplied heading into 2025 and further weakness seems likely even though prices are already at eight-year lows. Rob Searle, Fastmarkets
CMOC reported its January-September production was up 127% year on year, surpassing its own 2024 guidance in just three quarters. Given the world’s largest cobalt producer has more than doubled production highlights just what a dire situation the market is in. Fastmarkets expects the market to remain oversupplied heading into 2025 and further weakness seems likely even though prices are already at eight-year lows.
Rob Searle, Fastmarkets
Recent price surge in LME nickel price unsustainableIn October, the LME nickel cash price experienced an 8.7% decline, as the recent surge to a high of US$17,900 per tonne proved to be unsustainable.
Lack of detail in China’s stimulus package leaves market disappointedThe early-October peak followed China’s announcement of a stimulus package; however, the lack of specific details left the market feeling disappointed, leading to a sell-off.
LME nickel cash price settled late OctoberBy the end of October, the LME nickel cash price settled at $15,530 per tonne, positioning itself towards the lower end of this year’s relatively narrow trading range.
Despite the LME nickel price is currently towards the bottom of the relatively narrow range within which nickel has traded in 2024, apart from a brief peak in May. Although there might have been some disappointment at the lack of detail in the Chinese government’s stimulus announcement, the market’s oversupplied fundamentals (we forecast a 94,000 tonne surplus in 2024) are also weighing on the nickel price. Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets
Despite the LME nickel price is currently towards the bottom of the relatively narrow range within which nickel has traded in 2024, apart from a brief peak in May. Although there might have been some disappointment at the lack of detail in the Chinese government’s stimulus announcement, the market’s oversupplied fundamentals (we forecast a 94,000 tonne surplus in 2024) are also weighing on the nickel price.
Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets
Decline in manganese sulfate priceManganese sulfate prices experienced a decline in late October, driven by persistently weak spot demand.
Manganese ore prices drop significantly Despite a drop in upstream manganese ore prices throughout the month, manganese sulfate prices remained stable.
Sulfate processors reduce offersDemand from China’s pCAM buyers has been lacklustre, prompting manganese sulfate processors to reduce their offers.
Prices for manganese sulfate fell in the last week of October following 4 weeks of rangebound flat pricing. The pricing trend follows movements in other NCM material markets and highlights the ongoing headwinds and weakness in EV sales employing these nickel-based chemistries. Rob Searle, Fastmarkets
Prices for manganese sulfate fell in the last week of October following 4 weeks of rangebound flat pricing. The pricing trend follows movements in other NCM material markets and highlights the ongoing headwinds and weakness in EV sales employing these nickel-based chemistries.
Natural graphite miners implement supply cutsOngoing weakness in demand has compelled major natural graphite miners to implement significant supply cuts. Consequently, non-China natural graphite production has decreased by 45% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024.
Flake graphite prices remained stable Following the Golden Week holiday in October, green petroleum coke prices in China surged by 16%, driven by heightened activity in the synthetic anode sector and the aluminium industry. In contrast, flake graphite prices remained stable at a low of $450 per tonne in October.
Fine flake graphite prices stayed steady through OctoberPrices for fine flake graphite, the primary feedstock for the battery industry, stayed steady at $450 per tonne throughout October, slightly above the lowest recorded price of $430 per tonne in 2020.
Depressed prices and the limited imports of graphite by China has put natural graphite producers outside China in a challenging situation. Most producers have halted operations, relying on inventories for sales and experience liquidity issues. The coming months will be critical for most graphite producers outside China, facing insufficient demand for their material in Europe and North America. Georgi Georgiev, Fastmarkets
Depressed prices and the limited imports of graphite by China has put natural graphite producers outside China in a challenging situation. Most producers have halted operations, relying on inventories for sales and experience liquidity issues. The coming months will be critical for most graphite producers outside China, facing insufficient demand for their material in Europe and North America.
Georgi Georgiev, Fastmarkets
South Korean refiners face challengesDemand in Southeast Asia remains strong, while South Korean refiners continue to face challenges from low metal prices.
Gigafactory production scrap makes up highest portion of recycling feedstockCurrently, gigafactory production scrap makes up 69% of the recycling feedstock, as fewer lithium-ion batteries than anticipated reach the end of their life cycle.
India emerges as battery recycling leaderIndia is emerging as a leader in lithium-ion battery recycling, leveraging its extensive expertise in precious metal extraction from e-waste and the significant amounts of consumer electronic waste generated by its 1.4 billion population.
Oversupply of nickel, cobalt and lithium coupled with a shortage of end-of-life battery material has put serious short-term pressure on the economic models of battery recyclers. In the west this is causing recyclers to rethink their timelines on becoming vertically integrated which will further delay recycling capacity and make Europe less competitive internationally. Luke Sweeney, Fastmarkets
Oversupply of nickel, cobalt and lithium coupled with a shortage of end-of-life battery material has put serious short-term pressure on the economic models of battery recyclers. In the west this is causing recyclers to rethink their timelines on becoming vertically integrated which will further delay recycling capacity and make Europe less competitive internationally.
Luke Sweeney, Fastmarkets
Record sale of EVs in ChinaIn September, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market achieved a record sale of 1.1 million plug-in EVs, slightly below the 1.3 million units that the US anticipates selling throughout 2024.
Year-over-year growth in Europe despite negative sentimentDespite ongoing negative sentiment, the broader European market experienced a year-over-year growth of 6% in September. Europe’s challenges are partly attributed to insufficient support for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which have significantly contributed to the demand growth for EVs in both China and the US this year.
UK EV market healthiest in EuropeThe UK EV market stands out as the healthiest major market in Europe, with its plug-in EV market share rising from 23.2% year-to-date in September to 26.1%. This growth is primarily driven by a doubling of PHEV growth compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with market shares increasing from 26.2% to 13.2%, alongside heightened competition.
The Chinese EV market continues to support most of global demand growth as the US and Europe in particular have slowed down this year, but as its exports continue to grow in countries welcoming to them demand will quickly become less concentrated between these three regions. Europe’s new emissions regulations and the US’s increased political certainty should buoy EV sales going into 2025. Connor Watts, Fastmarkets
The Chinese EV market continues to support most of global demand growth as the US and Europe in particular have slowed down this year, but as its exports continue to grow in countries welcoming to them demand will quickly become less concentrated between these three regions. Europe’s new emissions regulations and the US’s increased political certainty should buoy EV sales going into 2025.
Connor Watts, Fastmarkets
These evolving market dynamics pose both threats and opportunities for investors, battery producers and the global electric vehicle (EV) sector. We anticipate that the volatility within the battery raw materials market will persist through the end of the year.
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