Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach a record 99 million tonnes in 2024, a 4% increase from the 95 million tonnes estimated for the current year, local consultancy Safras & Mercado said late Friday, July 28.
The new estimate for 2023 is 1 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast and represents a 21% increase from the 78.7 million tonnes exported in 2022.
The consultancy also pegged Brazil´s 2024 soybean crush at 55 million tonnes, up 3% from this year´s forecast of 53.4 million tonnes and higher than the May projection of 53 million tonnes.
In 2022, Brazil´s soybean crush totaled 50.9 million tonnes.
Safras projects imports in 2024 to stay at the same level as current year estimates, which is unchanged at 150,000 tonnes – a 64% decline from the 419,000 tonnes imported in 2022.
Soybean output in 2023-24 is projected to total 163.2 million tonnes, up 5% from the 156.1 million tonnes produced in 2022-23 and an all-time high.
In 2023, soybean total availability was pegged at 171.5 million tonnes, up 7% from the prior year’s 160 million tonnes and 18% higher than 2022’s 136 million tonnes.
Total demand is projected at 157.7 million tonnes in 2024, up 4% from this year’s estimate of 151.9 million tonnes and 15% above 2022’s 132.3 million tonnes.
That said, ending stocks are expected to increase 70% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2024, up from 2023´s 8.1 million tonnes.
This year’s ending stocks are expected to be 118% above 2022’s 3.7 million tonnes.
Soy meal and oil production
Soy meal output is projected at 42.3 million tonnes in 2024, up 3% from the current year’s forecast of 41 million tonnes, which is up 5% from 2022’s 39.2 million tonnes.
Exports are estimated at 21.5 million tonnes, a 2% drop from 2023’s 22 million tonnes estimates.
The current year figure is 8% higher than 2022’s 20.3 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, projected domestic demand in 2024 was pegged at 20 million tonnes, up 8% from the 18.5 million tonnes projected for 2023 – a 1% drop from 2022’s 18.7 million tonnes.
Ending stocks will increase by 31% to 3.3 million tonnes in 2024, up from the 2.5 million mt estimated for 2023.
This year’s figure is 30% higher than 2022’s 1.9 million tonnes.
Soy oil production is expected to reach 11.1 million tonnes next year, a 2% increase from 2023, when the country’s output was pegged at 10.8 million tonnes.
The 2023 figure is 9% higher than last year’s 9.9 million tonnes.
Brazil´s soy oil exports are projected to reach 2.2 million tonnes, down 12% from the 2.5 million tonnes forecast for 2023, which would result in a 4% decline from 2022’s 2.6 million tonnes exports.
Domestic demand was pegged at 9 million tonnes in 2024, a 5% increase from 2023’s 8.6 million tonnes.
This year’s figure is up 18% from 2022’s 7.3 million tonnes.
Safras expects biodiesel production will result in the demand for 4.5 million tonnes of soybeans next year, up 13% from the 4 million tonnes projected for 2023 – a 3% increase from 2022’s 3.8 million tonnes.
Ending stocks are projected to drop 21% to 295,000 tonnes from the 375,000 tonnes projected for the end of 2023.
Last year’s ending stocks totaled 610,000 tonnes.
