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The Brazilian government will acquire 200 million textbooks this year through the government program for textbooks, Programa Nacional do Livro Didático (PNLD), Nadja Cezar, general coordinator of the book programs at the National Fund for Educational Development (FNDE), told Fastmarkets in an interview.
According to the Ministry of Education’s projection, the government has allocated 1.5 billion to 2 billion Reais ($316.74 million to $422.32 million) for the acquisition, which is scheduled to take place between the months of September and November.
The PNLD, which is run by the FNDE, distributes up to 170 million books to more than 140,000 public schools in Brazil each year. The program purchases textbooks in four-year cycles, with each cycle focusing on a distinct stage of schooling: early childhood education, elementary school (initial and final years), and high school.
This year, “we will buy books for students in the final years of elementary education; for other students, we have already received their books and will be provided with copies for minor replacements,” Cezar explained.
Offset printing companies in the country are well-prepared to meet the impending demand, according to Everton Carpejani, supply chain manager of one of the country’s main offset printing companies, Posigraf.
Offset output units have the needed space and materials to begin production, he said.
“The PNLD and notebooks are the flagship products for the offset segment in Brazil. The market already has the quotas configured, including the printing companies, so there is space and material,” Carpejani said.
Dante Cid, president of the National Union of Book Publishers (SNEL), described the PNLD as the largest book-purchasing program in the world.
“It has significant importance in the educational sector, representing about 25-28% of all book purchases in the country. About one-third of all book sales happen through the PNLD,” Cid said.
To meet this demand, FTD Educação, the publisher responsible for producing a significant portion of the program’s books, stated that, “in times of new technologies” and digitalization of printing, it has invested in new partners and machinery to meet the government’s demand, “[in addition to] importing paper from China to anticipate the production, printing and distribution of the textbooks.”
According to market participants, the size of the PNLD purchase this year is as expected.
Angelo Xavier, chief executive officer of the publisher Moderna and president of the Brazilian Association of Books and Educational Content (Abrelivros), echoed the optimistic sentiments shared by other market participants.
He noted that the purchased books are typically 200-250 pages long, and “practically all these books should go to the post office to begin delivery to schools” between September and December.
“They should weigh between 250 and 300 grams, more or less, not much more than that,” he said.
Regarding this year’s acquisitions, Cezar explained that unlike previous years, the program will not purchase books for high schools.
“The bidding process is taking a little longer than usual because there is a discussion around changes in education. We are waiting for a definition, with the possible inclusion of specifications, regarding the new high school,” Cezar said.
Discussions on the subject are “very intense,” she added, noting that the FNDE expects this specific bidding process to be resolved by the end of 2023.
According to Xavier, the discussion about the high school reform “froze” the book purchases for this education level.
Typically, the program consists of one main purchase for one educational stage, plus three replacement purchases for the other stages.
“Each year, a new cycle is chosen. For example, in 2022, the early years of elementary education were chosen; this year, it will be the final years of elementary education. Next year, the program for purchasing high school textbooks should have been chosen,” he said.
“What was planned to happen next year will no longer happen. It is already certain that next year there will be no main program; it’s already settled. Therefore, all the execution that was planned for 2024 will be moved to 2025,” he explained.
For him, this situation creates “a problem” for the entire graphic chain, from authors to publishers.
“We would have [in 2024] only one year of replacement purchases, while the new program would be postponed to 2025. So, in 2024, we would have two acquisition programs, but with a smaller impact, which are the works for early childhood education,” he said.
The graphic paper industry, publishers, and authors “will have a certain struggle to overcome next year,” Xavier said.
Looking ahead, Cezar said there is also a discussion within the government about an edict for purchasing books for Youth and Adult Education (EJA).
“It was not scheduled, but the government understood that it is also a priority,” she said, adding that there have been no acquisitions of works for this segment in the last seven years.
According to Xavier, new book purchase programs are “welcome, but a full program of textbook acquisition for a segment has a significant impact in a year, so [even with a new bidding process for EJA], we should have a gap compared to a history of high school implementation.”
Regarding the introduction of digital education materials in public schools and the possible replacement of textbooks with electronic media, Xavier and Cezar both said such technology would complement education programs but would be unlikely to fully replace the use of printed materials.
The child needs to learn to write, needs to learn to do calculations, needs to make drafts, make summaries, and that can only be done on paper.
For Nadja, “the students’ cognitive needs require the expansion of resources that support the learning process, not the limitation of these tools.”
On the other hand, the government of São Paulo, however, has decided that, starting in 2024, the state’s education system will only use digital didactic content and no longer utilize printed books from the 6th grade of elementary school.
The São Paulo government has already opted not to participate in PNLD 2024, which will purchase books for the final years of elementary school this year, to be delivered next year. Furthermore, the state has said it will do the same with high school.
This type of change “influences the market,” Carpejani said, adding that it is not possible “to know the path” of the market.
“The publishers… are waiting to act on whatever comes,” he said.
This article was first published in PPI Latin America, our newsletter for pulp, paper and packaging market news and prices for Latin America. Speak to our team to learn about our news and market analysis, prices, forecast and more.