Price pressures for manganese alloys are set to ease due to improvements in steel production in 2025, Uzun said in his speech.
Manganese alloy prices jumped earlier this year on the curtailment of high-grade manganese ore supply from South32’s Groote Eylandt Mining Co (GEMCO) in Australia. But prices have come under pressure since the end of June on weak demand, Uzun said.
Fastmarkets’ silico-manganese 65% Mn min, max 17% Si, in-whs China price has fallen by 26.50% to 6,000-6,200 yuan ($835-863) per tonne on November 8 from a year-to-date high of 8,200-8,400 yuan per tonne on May 31.
Uzun predicted that manganese alloys prices will be slightly supported in 2025 with the recovery of steel production and improving sentiment since high stocks and lower prices have already led to some production cuts from manganese ore miners, which may help stabilize prices.
Crude steel production down in 2024
Global crude steel production in 2024 was down, but is poised for a gradual rebound in 2025, Uzun told conference delegates.
Market participants at the conference told Fastmarkets that China’s property market slump has lowered domestic steel demand, but the Chinese government’s recent stimulus policies may help support the steel market in 2025.
A raft of stimulus policies announced since the start of September this year, including lowering the one-year loan prime rate and reducing the reserve requirement ratio, have largely contributed to a rebound in China property market, sources said.
There is also cautious optimism for European output amid further rate cuts and demand recovery and the US steel market is also poised for a recovery, driven by easing financial conditions and infrastructure investment in 2025, sources added.
Ferro-silicon prices under pressure
Ferro-silicon prices will also likely remain under pressure, but rate cuts and economic stimulus could support a recovery in 2025, according to Uzun.
“Weak steel production weighed on Europe and China ferro-silicon market in recent months, but US ferro-silicon prices remained relatively stable due to trade investigations and tight supply,” a ferro-silicon trader source at the conference said.
China’s stimulus policies and the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle may boost global market sentiments next year, Uzun predicted.
The same macroeconomic drivers of stabilizing construction and interest rate falls in China will boost vanadium demand in 2025, Uzun said.
“After the stimulus policies announced in September, we can obviously see the stabilizing signal in the property market and construction activities. Stabilizing downstream steel demand also means stable demand for upstream vanadium,” a China-based vanadium trader source at the conference said.
Uzun also forecasts similar interest cuts and potentially improving construction output in the US and Europe as supportive for vanadium demand from the steel sector in 2025.
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