North American lumber industry struggles with closures, tariffs and post-pandemic demand shift

Forecasting is not an absolute exact science, but it provides a general expectation of future growth scenarios based on assumptions. Accessing two, five and 15-year forecasts by region and grade enables parties to plan around market changes. At Fastmarkets, our macroeconomic forecasts serve as a foundation for various forestry product forecasts, such as pulp, packaging, […]

Timber prices continue to remain subdued by our estimates. Log demand and prices have declined in most major North American producing regions as the US housing market throttled back and mills were temporarily shut or reduced shifts. Timber prices are influenced by many factors, one of which is lumber prices. In the US, roughly 70% […]

Click through the arrows to see the data story:

Starting 2025, concerns about potential tariffs left North American pulp market participants on edge. As they closed January prices and negotiated new orders for February, the landscape could starkly change. In the European pulp market, pulp producers have announced price increases for both bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) pulp and northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp. […]

Use the arrows to click through our data story to see the numbers behind the forecast:

The tariff drama as President Trump enters his second term of office has occupied much of the energy of financial markets and business leaders. The 25% levies on all goods from Canada and Mexico implemented on March 4 are sending ripple effects throughout the entire forest products industry, given the level of industry integration and […]

We expect prices for paper products in Latin America to increase in 2025, tracking higher costs and more robust demand than in 2024. The demand recovery in 2024 created opportunities to consume any remaining unsold inventories from the 2022-23 period, and new orders were placed throughout the year as demand increased. From a cost perspective, […]

Click through using the arrows to see the data to support our forecast:

As we frequently remind our readers, the future is uncertain, and market conditions can change rapidly, particularly in light of ongoing tariff discussions. Currently, the US has delayed imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico by one month. For now, we are assuming those tariffs will not take effect – and that China’s tariffs will. With […]