China has announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of US goods from March 10, with the new measures covering largely agricultural products, alongside restricted exports to 15 US companies, according to a notice posted by the country’s Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday, March 4. Imports of agricultural goods from the US, such as corn, wheat and cotton, will be subject to a 15% duty while imports of soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will face an additional 10% duty.
The announcement comes as additional tariffs by the US on Chinese imports took effect on Tuesday. The total rate for the new tariffs came to 20% after President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% on top of an earlier levied 10% that took effect from February 4.
“The US’ unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US,” the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.
Short-term impact ‘limited’: Market sources
The effect of China’s tariff announcement on imports such as corn, sorghum, wheat and soybeans in the near term looks to be limited, sources told Fastmarkets.
Corn market
Market participants said the 15% tariff will not have a big impact on the corn market for now, aside from putting additional pressure on already declining corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
“[The effect of the 15% tariff] would be bearish on US grains, but I wonder how much it will impact…since we’ve not seen any rebound in Chicago from mid-last week,” a trader said.
CME corn futures contract prices have been declining since February 19, with the March contract losing almost 12% to March 3, settling at 440.25 cents per bushel, while the May contract dropped by 11% to the latest settlement of 456.25 cents per bushel.
This was prior to the announcement of the tariffs.
“I don’t think [China’s tariffs] will have a big impact on the flows for 2025 as China will import very little [corn], but this trade war is bearish for commodities,” a second trader told Fastmarkets.
Chinese corn imports have been very weak in recent months, and total corn imports in 2024 fell by 49% on the year to 13.77 million tonnes, with US corn share taking up only 2 million tonnes or 14.5% compared with 7 million tonnes or a 26% share in 2023.
During the same period, China imported 6.5 million tonnes of corn from Brazil.
Chinese imports of Ukrainian corn in 2024 totaled 4.6 million tonnes or 33% of the total import volume, as compared to 2023, when imports amounted to 5.5 million tonnes, or 20% of the total.
Trade sources said they expect the same pattern to continue in 2025, with China increasing its import volumes from Brazil and Ukraine.
At the same time, market participants said they do not expect China’s corn imports to improve significantly this year – at least in the short term – because domestic prices have been low, meaning import prices have not been favorable.
“This year so far, we have yet to see sufficient import margin in nearby months, if at all,” a Chinese broker said.
Sorghum and barley market
China’s imposition of 10% tariffs on US sorghum could create an opportunity for increasing Australian imports. Australia supplied 1.95 million tonnes of sorghum to China in 2024, while imports from the US were at 5.68 million tonnes or 76% of the total 8.65 million tonnes imported.
The 10% tariff on US sorghum, along with the corn import tariff, could mean more demand for feed grains such as barley, as this was not listed among the commodities subject to tariffs.
“This is not bearish [for] Aussie barley because it basically removes some supply for the China feed grain deficit. Price action was muted for Aussie barley because it’s hard to trade headlines in a thin market (farmer selling is still painfully slow),” one Australian broker said.
Wheat market
The introduction of a 15% tariff on US wheat imports into China is also expected to have a limited effect on the physical market, given that wheat imports from the US are generally low. But it could add pressure to wheat futures, Fastmarkets understands.
US wheat futures have been in decline since February 18, losing around 11% in value and settling at 547.75 cents per bushel as of March 3.
Chinese wheat imports in 2024 reached 11 million tonnes, 7% down year-on-year. US wheat imports took a 17% share at 1.9 million tonnes, mostly comprising feed wheat.
If China were to stop buying wheat from the US, then we may see an increase in demand from other producers such ass Australia, France and Canada.
Soybean market
The impact on soybean trade flows in the near term was seen as limited, with the US peak export season over and Chinese purchases of US-origin soybeans for the March- May period also low.
According to market estimates, US-origin beans comprise approximately 8-10% of the estimated 24-25 million tonnes of soybeans that China has purchased for the March-May shipment.
“Furthermore, cargoes shipped before March 10 won’t be affected, meaning we have a few days to ship all the US cargoes,” one US-based source told Fastmarkets.
China’s soybean imports between April and September are typically dominated by South America-origin beans in line with the region’s harvest season, while volumes from the US usually increase in the last quarter of the year and into January- March of the following year.
“US beans were already more expensive for the near term anyway before the announcement was made,” a China-based broker told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ assessments of soybean CFR China premiums for April loading as of March 3 was 127 cents per bu over the May CME soybean futures contract for Brazil-origin beans and 200 cents per bu over the May contract for US Gulf-origin soybeans.
China imported 22.1 million tonnes of soybeans from the US in 2024, according to customs data, 5.7% or 1.35 million tonnes less compared to the previous year, and comprising 21% of China’s total soybean imports for the year.
US’s share of China’s soybean imports has also been on a general decline in recent years, from 33% in 2021 to 21% last year, ceding share to Brazil, who supplied China with 71% of its total soybean imports in 2024.
In the longer term, sources noted that coverage for forward months could be affected by tariffs on both US and Chinese products when trade flows shift towards the US later in the year.
Additionally, China could potentially have to source more Argentinian soybeans to maintain its reserves, with US and Argentinian beans preferred due to the lower oil content, which makes them more suitable for storage.
China imported 4.1 million tonnes of soybeans from Argentina in 2024, a jump from the 1.95 million tonnes imported from the previous year but lower than the five-year average of 5.08 million tonnes.
