The east Asian country’s port inventory levels dropped to a mid-point of 3.66 million tonnes (within the range of 3.58-3.74 million tonnes) on March 10, down from over 6 million tonne through much of October and all of November of last year, according to Fastmarkets’ weekly estimation of combined manganese ore stocks at Tianijn port and Qingzhou port.
Stocks were assessed at 3.77-3.87 million tonnes on March 17. The latest stocks data will be published later on Monday March 24.
“The inventories [of manganese ore] were almost on a straight downtrend in recent six months, which has been generating robust sentiment among participants, especially supply concerns among buyside contacts,” a manganese ore trader in China said.
But while sentiment has been bullish in recent weeks, the market mood turned bearish in the latest pricing session on March 21 despite low stocks, with buyers resistant to higher market levels amid falling downstream markets and some speculation over when and what effect the return of GEMCO supply will have, according to sources.
Looking back
The last time manganese ore stocks dropped to current levels and below was six years ago in September 2019, when downstream steel production in China was on an upward trend amid strong growth in its property and infrastructure sectors.
China’s crude steel production output reached 996 million tonnes in 2019, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, compared with 568 million tonnes a decade earlier.
Manganese ore inventories grew over this period amid strong demand.
Stocks also fell below 4 million tonnes in 2020 amid Covid-19 restrictions and reduced supply from South Africa. Downstream steel production in China also started to fall in 2020 from 1.053 billion tonnes to 1.005 billion tonnes by 2024, according to NBS.
Although China’s port stocks rose in the latest estimation, market participants still expected the continuation of the downtrend, at least before Fastmarkets’ upcoming Asia Ferroalloys 2025 Conference which is to be held on April 8-10 in Bangkok, Thailand.
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessments of manganese ore stocks at Qinzhou and Tianjin ports were in the range of 3.77-3.87 million tonnes on March 17, 2025, slightly up from 3.58-3.74 million tonnes a week earlier.
“There was just new arrival of big vessels,” a port contact said. “And the rise [of port stocks] was [a lot of] low-grade material, not the typical grades smelters would like to use.”
“We think [port stocks] will continue to fall as exports from South Africa and the world have been impacted for various reasons,” a producer source said.
Looking ahead
“Looking ahead, Fastmarkets expects Chinese steel production to decline slightly in 2025 compared with last year, due to some production reasoning and weak demand from struggling property sector,” Fastmarkets steel and ferro-alloy analyst Emre Uzun said.
Emre added, “On the supply side, manganese ore intake is likely to continue softening in early 2025, while the resumption of production and sales from South32’s GEMCO could help bring supply demand fundamentals to a better balance.”
The Groote Eylandt Mining Co (GEMCO) manganese ore facility in Australia, which is a subsidiary of mining giant South32, suspended its operations from March 2024 after a tropical cyclone made landfall.
“Subject to further potential impacts from the wet season, export sales [of manganese ore from GEMCO] are expected to progressively increase over the June 2025 quarter,” South32 said in a report.
Restocking of Chinese manganese alloy smelters, the reduced shipments from international miners and increased demand in non-China regions contributed to the sharp reduction of port stocks from the fourth quarter of 2024, according to sources.
Strong demand in China, fast consumption of port manganese ore stocks
“After the long Golden Week holiday [officially observed during October 1-7, 2024], Chinese manganese alloy producers returned and restocked, with active bookings from port-side markets,” the trader in China said.
“Thereafter, the restocking of smelters before and post the Lunar New Year holiday consumed port stocks quickly,” the trader added.
A manganese alloy producer source suggested that monthly manganese alloy output has remained elevated in recent months, acting as a solid support for manganese ore demand. They added that port stocks of manganese ore can only support less than two months of smelters usage.
The producer source calculated the consumption based on 2.2 tonnes of manganese ore being used for one tonne silico-manganese or ferro-manganese produced.
Port sellers raised their offers amid active bookings and falling port stocks, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ calculated its manganese ore high grade port index, fot Tianjin China at 46.70 yuan ($6.46) per dmtu on March 14, up by 7.30 yuan per dmtu from 39.40 yuan per dmtu on October 11, 2024.
Fastmarkets’ weekly manganese ore semi carbonate port index, 36.5% Mn, fot Tianjin China was calculated at 37.30 yuan per dmtu on March 14, down by 5.20 yuan per dmtu from 32.10 yuan per dmtu on October 11, 2024.
Shipment reductions from international suppliers
In comparison to the quick deliveries from ports to manganese alloy smelters, the new arrivals were slow and uncertain amid reduced production and shipments from international manganese ore miners, sources said.
“Gabon has weather issues, South Africa reduced supply due to weak price environment and now has limited export capacity to increase volumes,” the producer source told Fastmarkets.
Market participants noted various disruptions in high-grade supply from Gabon, including Eramet temporarily suspending operations late last year and the company revising down its 2024 sales targets, strike action at Comilog’s Moanda manganese ore mine in December 2024, limited trade over the Christmas period and logistical issues from heavy rainfall.
“In terms of Gabon, I have heard there have been a number of delays there since December and into February, and that the March quantity offered was low to allow [producers] to catch up the backlog,” a second producer source said.
“[It is] also to do with logistics I understand,” the second producer source added.
Seaborne prices up
Seaborne prices of high grade manganese ore have been trending upward since October 2024.
Fastmarkets calculated its manganese ore high grade index, cif Tianjin at $5.03 per dmtu on March 14, up by $1.12 (29%) from $3.91 per dmtu on October 11, 2024.
In South Africa, producers have reduced shipments since late last year due to depressed steel market conditions in China after a “sudden decrease in ore prices”.
Fastmarkets’ weekly manganese ore semi carbonate index, 36.5% Mn, cif Tianjin was calculated at $4.48 per dmtu on Marh 14, up by $0.79 cents (21%) from $3.69 per dmtu on October 11, 2024.
“It is still unknown whether perhaps from April exports from South Africa may rise, I am not sure as there are logistical challenges at ports in South Africa which I believe will prevent producers from ramping up significantly,” the second producer source said.
Demand rise in ex-China markets
A Chinese manganese alloy smelter source suggested that while low global supply has contributed to the current low stock levels in China, stronger-than-expected demand for ore in China and non-China regions has also been a big factor in the drawdown.
“I heard that seaborne prices of manganese ore to India were higher than China’s and the rising demand in the country has absorbed an increasingly larger share of miner’s shipments,” the smelter source said.
“We not only closely observe the manganese ore demand in downstream alloy industry and further in end-consuming steel sector but also keep a close eye on demand change in India,” a second Chinese manganese ore trader said.
An Indian ferro-alloy contact told Fastmarkets that “steel production in India keeps rising with increasing demand in domestic market. Thus, demand for ferro-alloys is rising here.”
Effect on manganese alloys market
Low manganese ore stocks have supported bullish sentiment in China’s manganese alloys sector, but lower coal prices and weak steel demand are giving mixed signals, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of silico-manganese 65% Mn min, max 17% Si, in-whs China, was 5,950-6,100 yuan per tonne on March 14. The price has weakened steadily by 450-500 yuan per tonne from 6,400-6,600 yuan per tonne since February 7.
“The lower manganese ore stock indeed pushed up the seaborne spot offers, but spot domestic China silico-manganese market is already oversupplied, with still quite a high operation rate among producers,” a silico-manganese trader said.
Steel mills across the country have successively reduced the purchase price of coke for twelve rounds, with latest round of reduction taking effect on March 14, which decreased the production costs for silico-manganese, sources said.
“The price of first-grade metallurgical coke produced in Shanxi province has dropped by 550-605 yuan per tonne from 1,700 yuan per tonne since October 2024,” a second silico-manganese trader said.
“Additionally, the still sluggish property market, unimproved downstream steel demand and the declining steel mill tenders’ prices have dampened upstream silico-manganese uptrend,” the second silico-manganese trader added.
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