1. Sodium-ion batteries are on hold
The lower price for lithium carbonate has made it more difficult for sodium-ion batteries to be seen as an attractive alternative for energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles (EVs), cell makers at the conference told Fastmarkets.
“Now that the lithium carbonate price is lower, and lithium iron phosphate [LFP] batteries are proven to be efficient and commercially viable, we don’t really need sodium-ion batteries any more,” a consumer said.
Another issue with sodium-ion batteries is that there is no established supply chain other than the one inside China. This means that if original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and cell makers want to use sodium-ion batteries, they will need to establish the supply chain, whereas there already is an established supply chain for LFP batteries.
ESS stakeholders also said that the sodium-ion battery technology does not have a sufficient life cycle to meet the needs for ESS investors. Energy density is an important factor for ESS because the projects want to have longer duration.
Despite all these obstacles, many conference attendees told Fastmarkets that sodium-ion batteries will not be completely discarded, because the trends for batteries are changing inconsistently.
“We are all waiting to see how the sodium-ion batteries market develops in China,” a consultant source said. “I guess China has become the model to follow when establishing anything new in the battery market.”
2. EU black mass market awaits ‘level playing field’ on export codes
Participants in the market for black mass expressed their frustration at the current lack of a level playing field for black mass exports from the EU.
Under current rules, certain black mass generators are allowed by their local governments to export the material as a “product” that can be shipped anywhere in the world.
Other EU battery-shredding operations – including many which have requested licenses recently – see their black mass output treated as a hazardous waste. This means that they must follow procedures under the Basel Convention and are prevented from exporting to nations outside of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“From next year, that will all change,” Elewout Depicker said. He is vice-president for commercial and corporate development, Europe-Middle East-Asia, for Switzerland-based Li-Cycle. “From June, all [black mass] streams will be classified as hazardous,” he added. “[This means that] trade routes to nations including Malaysia will be closed.”
3. Price premium required for non-Chinese manganese sulfate, producers say
Prominent ex-China producers of battery-grade manganese sulfate reiterated that material produced outside of China, which currently dominates global production, will require a significant premium.
Madelein Todd, chief marketing officer at leading high-purity manganese metal producer Manganese Metal Co (MMC), was emphatic on this point.
“High purity manganese refined outside of China will cost you more than you thought or hoped… I don’t think I can state that any clearer,” she said in a presentation providing an outlook on the market.
MMC intends to supply its high-purity metal for the production of manganese sulfate while also working toward introducing its own manganese sulfate production.
Although non-Chinese manganese sulfate would require a premium, Todd said that the overall effect on battery cell cost would be limited, with the material representing a relatively minor input cost in EV battery chemistries such as nickel–manganese–cobalt (NMC).
4. Industry calls for further government support in Europe
Ahead of the conference, on September 13, the European Commission launched an investigation into whether to impose tariffs on cheaper Chinese EVs being sold into the region, in order to protect domestic producers.
These investigations are in line with other measures such as the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which was passed to encourage improvement in the domestic supply chains for the EV sector within Europe.
But participants across the value chain expressed the view that the current measures were not enough.
“Europe is at risk of being left behind, particularly when you look at the initiatives in the United States,” one trader said on the sidelines of the conference, referring to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act.
Comparisons between the IRA and the EU’s measures were commonplace among delegates.
Speaking about reports of potential tariffs, one consumer told Fastmarkets that “it is still not enough, in our view.” The consumer added that there are significant concerns over the higher costs of raw material and production in Europe.
5. Sustainability pricing is front-of-mind for full value chain
Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important focus for OEMs, so expectations of further restrictions – or incentives – around the carbon intensity of batteries have meant that discussions about sustainable or “green” premiums were common at the conference.
Many participants still said, however, that they felt the industry was a long way from such prices being widely implemented.
Discussions about the trade-offs involved in the production of sustainable materials were dominated by beliefs that end-users must be willing to pay the additional costs involved.
“In order for us to produce green material, we need to be confident that consumers are willing to cover the additional cost for us to remain competitive,” one producer told Fastmarkets.
One cathode active material (CAM) producer noted their belief that the lack of definition for sustainability within the industry “remains a significant bottleneck.”
Premiums linked to sustainability are not umcommon in raw materials markets, with the aluminium and steel markets proving their potential.
Some consumers at the conference said that there was a willingness to pay an additional premium for green material but, as one consumer said: “We also still have to remain competitive.”
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