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The hugely important copper concentrates treatment charge (TC) benchmark will likely be set at the event, as participants from across the globe meet. With almost too much to talk about, the following are likely to be some of the key topics of discussions next week:
The annual contractual supply benchmark talks both for copper concentrates and refined copper cathodes will be officially starting next week between key suppliers and consumers, and a major topic will likely be extreme market conditions, such as in the copper concentrates market, which tumbled to a record low in 2024, participants told Fastmarkets.
In the copper concentrates market, the consensus is for a decline in 2025’s copper concentrates treatment and refining charge (TC/RC) benchmark, but just how much the number will fall remains a key talking point, Fastmarkets has heard.
“I am still thinking next year’s copper concentrates TC/RC benchmark [will be in the] mid-high $20s per tonne amid supply tightness, which has remained intact,” a copper concentrate trader said.
“I expect the final number may go between $20-30 per tonne, and it will be not an easy one to conclude a number, but they have to,” a second copper concentrate trader said.
In the copper cathodes market, Chinese participants are unenthusiastic for signing 2025’s annual supply talks due to market pessimism and losses from this year’s contractual supplies, according to market participants.
“Imagine if you buy copper cathodes at $70s [per tonne] from a supplier, and when you sell them, you can only make it at $35s [per tonne], and this has happened throughout the year, and a gloomy demand outlook for next year will be also giving buyers little enthusiasm in signing long-term supply contracts,” a third refined copper trader said.
Fastmarkets assessed the daily copper grade A cathode premium, cif Shanghai at $30-45 per tonne on Friday November 8, unchanged day on day but slightly above the year-to-date average of $27.82-43.96 per tonne.
This compares with Codelco’s 2024 copper premium offer to Chinese clients of $89 per tonne.
In the concentrates markets, a number of disruptions have flavored discussion, both across the year and in recent months.
The most recent disruptions were fires at copper smelters, which has meant that the copper concentrate market has had comparatively lower supply at present.
One smelter source told Fastmarkets that the disruptions to smelting projects – including the fire at Freeport’s smelter in Myanmar and the fire at China Daye’s Yangxin copper smelter in Hubei province – would help loosen the market in the first few months of 2025.
But sources are unsure how long these disruptions will continue and whether the slightly less tight market is a momentary respite or not. The majority of sources Fastmarkets has spoken with still expect a tight market in 2025, and that these disruptions will be short lived.
Cobre Panama is another disruption that participants are also likely to discuss. First Quantum’s mine in Panama shut late in 2023, and is still not exporting concentrates.
Cobre Panama’s closure has been cited by a number of sources as the reason the copper concentrates spot market fell so low so quickly.
First Quantum’s full-year 2024 copper production guidance was set at 370,000-420,000 tonnes, with volumes rising to 400,000-460,000 tonnes in both 2025 and 2026.
Despite concerns surrounding tightness in concentrates supply, multiple sources have told Fastmarkets that they think the refined market, especially in Europe and parts of Asia, remain less tight.
LME copper stocks are at 272,400 tonnes, up 64% since the start of 2024; in the same timeframe, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) deliverable copper stocks have pushed up 352% to 139,662 tonnes.
Economic challenges globally have meant that copper demand in some regions has been weaker than expected this year. But copper demand as a whole is still up compared with last year, and its likely that end-use copper demand will be a key discussion point.
With new smelting capacity due to Freeport’s Indonesian smelter and Adani’s Indian smelter, there will also be a focus on where that material flows and what material it displaces.
Tuesday November 5 marked the re-election of former US President Donald Trump, and multiple market sources have told Fastmarkets they expect this could lead to increased trader tensions that may impact copper markets in the long run.
“[Trump’s] election does open up the potential for US, China and EU trade disputes,” one miner source said, noting the president-elect’s protectionist views.
Sources also said the US’ commitment to the energy transition could falter somewhat due to Trump’s climate skepticism. Copper demand from the energy transition is significant, and some sources said that long-term demand for copper in the US may change.
“Trump is a well-known climate skeptic, so you would expect him to go slower on energy transition investment in the long run,” one source said, adding that the US now barely accounts for 5% of global copper demand, so this may not make a huge difference.
It is likely, nonetheless that Trump’s impact on the copper market will be a topic of discussion.
Political and economic developments in China will also be closely watched. China’s National People’s Congress met during the week of November 4-8, and Asia Copper Week will be an opportunity to digest what any news means for the market.
China is the world’s biggest copper consumer and, as such, participants will keep an eye on any developments.
Sources also noted that the copper market is likely to be heavily influenced by geopolitical factors more broadly in 2025.
“The market fundamentals are going through the window due to geopolitics,” the miner source said, adding that it was becoming hard to predict how the market will move.