This challenging global tissue landscape is expected to continue in 2025 and will require attention from producers, according to Fastmarkets sources.
“In terms of costs, it is important to remember that the tissue industry is exposed to international pulp and chemical prices, even when countries produce the raw material, which pays in dollars,” Fastmarkets’ senior economist Rafael Barisauskas noted.
This increase in production costs tends to prompt producers to pass on higher prices to consumers. However, there are many challenges in this road. Countries are trying to reduce the inflation rate, while retailer consolidation making it difficult in Europe, for example.
Tissue producers across the globe are facing tighter margins, especially those that are not integrated with pulp.
Europe looks for higher growth
In Europe, producers are looking for recovering per capita tissue consumption in 2025. According to Fastmarkets’ tissue economist for Europe, Phillip Jaki, this trend has been driven by inflation across the continent.
He highlighted that the preliminary forecast for consumption growth in Western Europe is 4.1% in 2025, reaching 7.16 million tonnes, while in Eastern Europe, the increase is expected to be 4.4%, reaching 2.6 million tonnes.
However, Jaki said this growth mainly reflects a recovery from last year when the European market was under greater pressure.
“For next year, I estimate that consumption in Europe will decline. Previously, we had a stable increase, but since the [Covid-19] pandemic, it has fluctuated a lot — rising and falling. It’s following this pattern because the European economy is facing challenges,” he said.
Despite the recent volatility in the European market, local tissue production is expected to grow in the coming years.
Discussions around this potential growth and the global tissue landscape are expected to take place during the Tissue World event in Dusseldorf, Germany, 8-10 April. The theme is “Future-Proofing the Tissue Industry for Sustainable Growth.” Hundreds of top industry leaders, innovators and technical experts will share insights into the most pressing challenges and opportunities.
Tissue World Düsseldorf 2025 will host the most powerful speaker line-up in its history. The event will feature European-headquartered tissue industry heavyweights including executives from Essity, Sofidel, WEPA, Metsä Tissue, LC Paper and Duni. Visit Tissue World’s event site to find out more or register to attend.
According to the latest World Tissue Capacity Report by Fastmarkets, Europe’s tissue production capacity is expected to reach 11.3 million tonnes in 2025, representing a 1% growth compared with the previous year.
Latin America and the integration boom
In Latin America, senior economist Rafael Barisauskas noted that inflation and rising costs have put pressure on the consumption of essential goods, such as tissue, by reducing disposable income.
“Faced with this scenario, consumers tend to seek more economical alternatives, opting for lower-quality products or in smaller formats, such as toilet paper packages with fewer rolls or fewer layers,” he said.
In some markets, this change in behavior favors more affordable brands and impacts market share, with products in smaller packages and more competitive prices gaining prominence.
Meanwhile, the integration between tissue and pulp producers is an ongoing shift in this market.
With very competitive forest costs, large bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) pulp producers like Suzano and Bracell are strengthening their presence in the tissue market, with the latter also exporting more jumbo rolls.
According to Fastmarkets tissue economist Stephanie Hsia, integration within the tissue production chain reached 45.4% of Brazilian industry capacity by the end of 2024, up from only 16.3% in 2016.
Market sources consulted by Fastmarkets have indicated that integrated companies in Brazil can operate with significantly lower costs, around 20% less, compared with non-integrated companies.
“Brazil has one of the lowest pulp production costs in the world, and this is reflected when companies advance in integrating their mills for tissue production” Hsia said.
Effects of Trump’s tariff
The tariffs imposed by US President Trump on 2 April are expected to cause a transformation in the global tissue landscape. They will significantly affect tissue import flows and putting pressure on domestic market prices.
Indonesia, the largest exporter of parent rolls to the US, was hit with a 33% tariff, while Vietnam, the fifth-largest supplier, faced a 46% tax.
Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada, the second and third-largest exporters, were exempt from the reciprocal tariffs but the scenario for them remains uncertain. Turkey, the fourth-largest supplier, was subjected to a 10% tariff.
According to Hsia, this measure is expected to have a significant impact by increasing raw material costs for US domestical tissue production.
“The expectation is that Mexico will increase its share in supplying tissue to the North American market. Brazil may also have the opportunity to expand its presence,” said Hsia.
According to Hsia, there is still uncertainty among local producers regarding the potential expansion of the industry’s production capacity.
While the sector evaluates its next steps in terms of investments, for now, importers are expected to seek alternative supply sources with more competitive prices.
At the same time, the increase in costs due to tariffs is likely to be passed on to the final consumer.
By jorge.barbosa@fastmarkets.com and mfaleiros@fastmarkets.com
Fastmarkets has launched on 2 April 2025 its first assessment for the tissue jumbo roll market, with four prices for the Brazilian domestic market. To read more about this development, click here.
