How will a Trump presidency impact lumber markets?

Read a snippet of our weekly lumber commentary, this week assessing the potential impact of Donald Trump's presidency on the market.

Conversation was dominated by President-elect Donald Trump’s social media announcement of blanket 25% tariffs on all products shipped into the US from Canada and Mexico effective January 20.

While the announcement garnered much attention, few traders considered the threat credible, and the industry as a whole took a wait-and-see approach to the news.

In Western S-P-F, upward price momentum paused as the US holiday approached. Buyers had an easier time covering immediate needs, and declined to extend inventories, especially in spots where winter weather had settled in. Lumber futures was little changed in early trading.

Buyers across the South lacked urgency amid abundant supplies of most items. Downward price pressure was unabated.

Many veteran traders noted that the price spread between Southern Pine and Western S-P-F was the widest they had seen in their careers and expressed surprise that species substitution was not more prevalent.

In Coast markets, upward price momentum and tight supplies kept prices trending higher in uneventful trading. Sales tapered as the US Thanksgiving holiday approached. Green Fir prices led the way, often due to mills drying more of their production.

Interested in learning more about the Random Lengths weekly report? Find out how to subscribe to gain access to the full piece, including data visualizations and commodity-specific analysis.

What to read next
Producers of copper appear to be adopting the public mantra of “keep calm and carry on” while trade tensions escalate. But this belies an underlying mood of concern that not just they, but the wider industry, has assumed
The European pulp and paper (P&P) industry is struggling to assess the possible impact of tariffs. First, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% blanket tariff on all goods imported to the US. Additionally, he announced higher “reciprocal” tariffs with those he deemed worst offenders. This included a 20% tariff on EU goods. He later […]
This article examines trends in CIF aluminium premiums in Mexico and the current dynamics that led to the launch of new references, while highlighting challenges and opportunities in the market to support stakeholders in making strategic decisions in the country
President Trump's recent tariffs, including a 25% levy on imported vehicles, have disrupted the US economy, triggering market turmoil, retaliatory actions and challenges for industries like EVs and battery raw materials. With rising inflation, reduced consumer confidence and a bleak growth outlook, economic pressure continues to mount.
North American lumber industry struggles with closures, tariffs and post-pandemic demand shift
This consultation, which is open until May 11, 2025, seeks to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under indexation, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes all elements of our pricing process, our price specifications, and publication frequency. You can […]