Fundamental market drivers and industrial sector support are expected to sustain momentum in critical minerals development despite potential policy shifts under the Trump administration, according to experts at the Resourcing Tomorrow Government Roundtable Feedback Session held on Thursday, January 23. Trump strategies are likely to have a significant impact on supply chains and international partnerships, drawing attention from key stakeholders in the critical minerals industry.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the market for critical minerals will grow from $325 billion in 2023 to $770 billion by 2040 in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario. This growth is largely fueled by clean energy transitions and the increasing deployment of renewable technologies, such as those used in electric vehicles. Against this backdrop, experts discussed Trump strategies and their potential to reshape U.S. critical minerals policies.
“What we’ve seen with the Trump administration is a more unilateral approach to partnerships, compared to the multilateral initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership adopted by the Biden administration,” said Isabelle Dupraz, deputy director of the European Initiative for Energy Security.
The Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) is a collaboration of 14 countries and the EU aimed at catalyzing public and private investment in responsible critical minerals supply chains. Partners include key allies such as Australia, Canada, and the EU, all working to ensure stable and ethical access to minerals vital for clean technologies and domestic industries.
China’s dominance in several critical mineral supply chains remains a primary challenge for the industry. For example, China held an 87% global production share of magnesium in 2021, alongside significant control of other critical raw materials. This market dominance has led to “systemic market distortion and predatory pricing,” according to Dupraz, who cited recent examples of economic coercion. Shortly after Trump’s electoral win, China imposed export controls on critical elements like graphite and magnesium. Earlier, China had also tightened controls on gallium, germanium, and rare earth exports as part of its response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor and AI technology exports. Trump strategies addressing these trade dynamics and economic coercion are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the global critical minerals landscape.
These materials are essential not only for the production of electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure but also for military equipment such as missiles and aircraft. By focusing on domestic production and reinforcing supply chains, the Trump administration could influence the industry’s ability to meet rising demand while mitigating reliance on foreign-controlled resources.
Playing catch up and price dynamics
This Chinese dominance highlights the pressing challenges facing North American processing capacity. The gap between North American capabilities and Chinese control in materials like lithium and rare earths remains a key concern, particularly given financing barriers for early-stage projects, according to Remi Piet, co-founder and senior partner at Embellie Advisory.
Trump administration strategies could provide opportunities for investor alignment in mitigating these gaps, yet Piet warns that achieving domestic production levels comparable to China remains a long-term challenge.
“There will be an increase of prices in the short term because you will still need to rely on imports from traditional [producing] countries, particularly China, until North America is able to catch up,” Piet said.
Policy Implications and ESG Outlook
While the Trump administration has been revoking key electric vehicle (EV) initiatives, including Biden’s 50% EV sales target for 2030, Piet suggested that industrial momentum would continue due to existing business interests and investments. Even as Trump ordered a 90-day pause to funding under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Piet sees ESG commitments as remaining integral to businesses.
“Even the Inflation Reduction Act [IRA] is actually very much supported by a series of actors in the industrial sector. While strategies may shift under some Trump administration policies, fundamental incentives to stabilize critical mineral supply chains are unlikely to disappear entirely,” Piet stated.
Fastmarkets special correspondent Andrea Hotter reinforced this idea. “That’s because the vast majority of projects, jobs created, and project values are located in Republican states, making a halt economically risky.”
Regardless of the political climate, Piet said ESG commitments are seen as a risk mitigation strategy, ensuring companies maintain credibility and long-term viability in supply chain investments.
Lessons from global leaders
According to Isabelle Dupraz, lessons abound from other nations advancing critical minerals strategies. Canada and Australia exemplify effective approaches:
Canada has implemented cross-ministerial regulatory harmonization to accelerate mineral extraction timelines.
Australia has improved project bankability via initiatives like Export Finance Australia (EFA) support and a 10% Critical Minerals Tax Credit under the CMPTI.
For U.S. policymakers and economists considering the potential of Trump administration strategies, these proactive frameworks highlight clear pathways to overcoming domestic resource challenges and strengthening critical mineral supply chains under shifting administrations.
