Native-species ARR projects still command premium to exotic-species projects

Native-species Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation (ARR) projects continued to command a premium to projects that planted exotic species, with a wide range of project-specific offers reported in the week to Wednesday February 19

Small volumes of around 3,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) of Panama ARR (VCS 2481) vintage 2017 were reported on offer at $32 per tCO2e. The volumes on offer represented more than half the circulating credits from that project-vintage pair.

The supply of credits from the project is constrained. It has issued up to vintage 2021, with only around 10,000 tCO2e per vintage year and just over 26,000 tCO2e total circulating credits across all vintages. The project plants mainly native hardwood species over an area of close to 1,200 hectares.

Toward the lower end of the market, offers continued to be reported in wide ranges for the same project-vintage pairs. Some sellers were reluctant to lower offers further despite limited buying appetite, while others were more pragmatic and looking to encourage and meet potential buyer interest.

Offers for Uruguay ARR (VCS 959) vintage 2015 credits were offered as low as $1.75 per tCO2e this week, while some sellers were targeting offers as high as $4.80 per tCO2e for around 50,000 tCO2e of the same credits.

Forward offers for second-quarter delivery of vintage 2020-2022 credits from the VCS-issued Vichada ARR project (VCS 2512) were reported in a wide range of $16-20 per tCO2e for just over 100,000 tCO2e.

Large-volume forward offers were also reported for two other pre-issuance projects. Ghana ARR (VCS 4946) vintage 2026-2027 credits were offered at $22 per tCO2e for around 240,000 tCO2e, while vintage 2026-2027 credits from a Canada ARR project (VCS 4969) were reported offered at $22 per tCO2e for around 120,000 tCO2e. VCS 4946 is currently listed as “under development” on the Verra registry, and its Project Design Document (PDD) was submitted in July.

The project will plant native species over an initial area of 5,000 ha, with the intent to add additional land over the next 5-10 years. The first crediting period will run from 2024 to 2031. VCS 4946 is not currently listed on the Verra registry.

China ARR credits priced at a discount

China ARR credits continued to be priced at a significant discount to other regions, with credits from an unspecified project reported trading around $4.50 per tCO2e for vintage 2020.

Retirements of some withdrawn China ARR projects continued, with 17,000 tCO2e of vintage 2021 credits from the Qianbei ARR project (VCS 2082) retired this week by an unnamed company.

Trading interest and price levels of these projects have come under pressure over the past year, as many China ARR developers have withdrawn their projects from the Verra registry to target the domestic Chinese voluntary carbon market (CCER).

On the demand side, Swiss bank Raiffeisen Schweiz retired 5,000 tCO2e of vintage 2022 credits from a Ghana ARR project (VCS 2410) on February 12 to offset its scope 1 and 2 emissions for 2024 and 2025.

Spanish electricity transmission operator Redeia Corporación retired 5,000 tCO2e of Gold Standard-issued Vichada (GS 4221) vintage 2021 late this week. Larger volumes of vintage 2020 credits from the project were reportedly offered at $23.70 per tCO2e earlier this month.

Elsewhere, the Unitan ARR project (VCS 2610) in Argentina issued 5,200 tCO2e of earlier vintage 2016-2019 credits on Monday February 17. The project previously issued 3,400 tCO2e of vintage 2020-2021 credits the week before.

Offers for the mangrove restoration project Delta Blue Carbon-1 (VCS 2250) were reported at $30 per tCO2e for vintage 2022, with bids at $27.50 per tCO2e. Vintage 2021 credits from the project were offered at $29 per tCO2e last week.

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