Season two of Fastmarkets’ Fast Forward podcast kicked off with an insightful discussion on one of the most pressing issues in the global economy today – securing critical mineral supply chains. Hosted by Andrea Hotter, the first episode explored the challenges facing the industry, featured perspectives from industry heavyweights Will Adams, Gracelin Baskaran, Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes and Ben Steinberg.
Here are the key takeaways from the conversation:
- The US relies heavily on China for critical minerals, with China controlling up to 90% of global resources
- Tariffs and government incentives can support US industry and level competition
- Allied partnerships with nations like Canada and Australia are crucial for supply chain resilience
- Streamlining the lengthy 29-year US permitting process is vital for domestic mining growth
- A long-term plan focusing on current needs and future innovations is key to independence
Read a more in-depth summary or listen to the full episode below. You can subscribe to the series wherever you get your podcasts.
The supply chain challenge
Critical minerals form the backbone of industries ranging from electric vehicles (EVs) to renewable energy and defense. However, the West, particularly the US, struggles to establish secure and resilient supply chains, with China dominating over 70% of upstream resources and up to 90% of processing capabilities for many critical materials.
“China has done an astounding job at being able to secure those materials, build those mines and operate those mines,” said Zumwalt-Forbes.
During their discussion, panellists Baskaran and Steinberg rated the progress since 2017 at a modest “three”, Zumwalt-Forbes at an “optimistic four” on a scale of one to ten, reflecting the long road ahead.
“It’s not like we can just set up the processing part of the supply chain and wash our hands of it, boom, problem solved,” said Zumwalt-Forbes, underscoring the complexity of the systems involved.
The role of tariffs
Tariffs can act as both a shield and a weapon in the critical minerals landscape. From grappling with unfair dumping practices to shoring up local industries, they offer tangible short-term solutions.
“We need tariffs,” said Steinberg. However, he conceded that “there has to be an answer balancing resulting damage” with examples like the Commerce Department’s finding graphite dumping.
Collaboration with allies
One recurring theme in this discussion was the importance of building partnerships with allied nations to develop a more balanced global supply chain. Baskaran highlighted Canada and Australia as examples of resource-rich countries that could help fill gaps in US supply chains.
“We need to embrace Canada at this point in time. We are not going to meet the nuclear energy goals with uranium tariffs, [or on] batteries and nickel. Countries like Canada and Australia…we have to rethink what cooperation looks like,” said Baskaran when discussing the importance of strategic collaborations in North America.
Zumwalt-Forbes underscored how China has embedded resource acquisition into its foreign policy, creating a significant advantage.
“China has embedded this into the bedrock of its foreign policy,” said Zumwalt-Forbes. She stressed that the West must prioritize allied partnerships to foster a secure supply network, adding, “We need that carrot piece in being able to bring other countries along and form these allied relationships.”
The permitting roadblock
One of the most significant barriers to building a secure supply chain in the US is the lengthy and complex permitting process. Zumwalt-Forbes pointed out that it can take up to 29 years to bring a new mine online.
“We do a piss poor job in this country trying to get assets online… it’s like an average 29-year-process to get something up, and that’s an absurdity,” she said, calling for reform.
If the US and its allies cannot accelerate permitting processes, they risk falling further behind in the race to secure critical industrial inputs. Zumwalt-Forbes added, “I would absolutely love to see permitting advantages so that we can stand a fighting chance here.”
Addressing pricing and investment volatility
The panellists also tackled the financial challenges of mining and processing critical minerals. Market volatility often makes it difficult to attract the “patient capital” required for such long-term projects. Zumwalt-Forbes proposed a solution, saying: “I like the concept of the government being a buyer of last resort or providing a pricing backstop for off-take agreements.” She explained how this approach could both stabilize the market and attract private capital.
Steinberg pointed out the need for consistent policies to build investor confidence. “The term for me is certainty,” he said. Steinberg argued that extended tax incentives and streamlined regulations are vital, saying: “Folks need to know that if they put in the work and do all the things they’re supposed to do, 20 years later, it’s going to pay off.”
The future outlook
While the road is long, the panellists agreed that strategic action today can lay the groundwork for a more secure future. This includes using a mix of tariffs and incentives, fostering partnerships with allies and planning for emerging technologies.
“Our best angle is establishing security and independence with current technology now and keeping an eye to the future such that we can have a dominant position in the next iteration,” Zumwalt-Forbes said, pointing to the importance of focusing on future innovation.
Baskaran, Zumwalt-Forbes and Steinberg acknowledged that catching up to China in just five years is unrealistic, given its four-decade head start. Baskaran said, “China has built its advantage over 30 to 40 years. It’s not fair to expect the US is going to catch up in five.” However, with a coordinated strategy, the West can work toward resilience within a span of 10 to 20 years.
Building a collaborative vision for critical minerals
The discussion concluded with a call to think big and act boldly. Steinberg proposed significant opportunities for collaboration, saying: “Why not critical minerals? Why can’t we make that huge investment announcement with South Korea or Japan or Finland or Norway to build processing facilities in this country?”
For the US to succeed, these large-scale partnerships and international cooperation are crucial. Zumwalt-Forbes said that to achieve strategic goals, the US must build alliances while being mindful of existing agreements.
“How does that work with existing contracts? Often mines are brought online with life-of-mine offtake agreements. My question is, how do we unwind the existing infrastructure and alliances?” she asked, highlighting the challenges ahead.
By pursuing a mineral-by-mineral strategy and prioritizing allied cooperation, Steinberg said, “we can build a more resilient system capable of standing against the dominance seen today.”
Subscribe to Fast Forward, your definitive podcast for the critical minerals and battery raw materials markets. Each episode, we’re diving headfirst into the latest trends, market buzz and game-changing technologies that are shaking up this ever-changing landscape.
