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Despite the recent slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales growth, this was the view of Trent Mell, chief executive officer of Electra Battery Materials, who was speaking at the summit in Bali, Indonesia.
“While China is still leading the EV race, [its] focus is on LFP [lithium-ferrous-phosphate] batteries,” Mell said. “North American demand will grow at near-China pace, but the focus is on nickel-bearing chemistries.”
Electra believed that total capacity to be installed in battery electric passenger vehicles in North America will reach 921GWh by 2035, compared with 155GWh in 2020. This growth rate was higher than China’s expected threefold growth rate during the same period.
In terms of the chemistry mix of the batteries, Electra said that batteries with nickel-bearing chemicals held an 89% share in North America compared with 39% in the Chinese market.
“The whole trend of EV development is upward,” Mell said in a panel discussion at the summit. “Consumers in North America welcome bigger EVs with longer range. The future of EV batteries in the region is toward high nickel.”
Nickel increases the energy density for lithium-ion batteries and therefore the driving range.
The trend toward high-nickel batteries in North America also presented significant opportunities for Indonesia, given its dominant role in nickel supply globally, Fastmarkets understands.
Indonesia had 65% of nickel intermediates supply and 42% of refined nickel supply in 2023. Among this, the intermediates of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) were a major feedstock source for nickel sulfate production, and upstream materials for battery cathode precursor making, according to Fastmarkets’ research.
“This means that there is a high chance that MHP can be exported to the North American market for nickel sulfate production,” Mell said. “Electra is building North America’s first cobalt sulfate refinery, with plans under way for a nickel sulfate refinery, importing MHP from Indonesia.”
While the overall market outlook was bullish for nickel-chemistry battery developments in North America, some delegates at the summit took a relatively conservative view on the development of new projects in the near term.
“The outlook for new project investment remains uncertain,” a source told Fastmarkets, “considering the changing market dynamics, high interest rates and knowhow required for production.”
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