US linerboard prices narrowly increased by $30-40 per short ton in February, according to Fastmarkets’ monthly survey. Levels were reported up by $40 per ton for brown virgin and recycled linerboard, and up by $30 per ton for white top linerboard.
Major producers sought increases of $60 per ton and $70 per ton for linerboard, effective on January 1, but the increase failed.
This month, corrugated box market supply/demand remained less than strong, but higher pricing was still reported. A chief factor was that buyers and sellers expected a stronger corrugated box demand pace for March and April, as seasonally occurs, and viewed coming mill machine downtime, mill capacity closures and likely tariffs as things that might impact supply.
For February, again, domestic open market buyers and sellers overall were mixed about paying higher prices. Demand reports were varied from boxmakers. Buyers told of more than enough supply available. US containerboard mills ran below capacity, with a 91.2 percent operating rate for full-year 2024, leaving approximately 4 million tons unused in a market of 38 million tons for the year. Several national accounts bitterly opposed any linerboard increase that would impact their prices for buying boxes.
Even so, pricing was up by $40 per ton for 42-lb unbleached kraft linerboard (to $940-950 per ton), 30-31-lb recycled linerboard (to $840-850 per ton), and 26-lb semi chemical corrugating medium (to $830-840 per ton).
Over the last five years, March/April actual US corrugated box shipments exceeded January/February shipments. The March/April actual shipments on average were about 1.4% higher than the January/February average, based on Fibre Box Association figures.
Backlogs this week were reported at four weeks for containerboard mill orders. Backlogs this week at box plants were reported at five to seven days.
International Paper’s (IP) announcement last week to close its 805,000-ton-per-year kraft linerboard Red River mill in Campti, Louisiana, seemed to impact buyers and sellers. The Red River mill is to shut by the end of April. Its capacity is about 3% of total US linerboard capacity.
Buyers and sellers this week also noted the Red River mill closure — the second large closure by IP in the US in 16 months — and said they expect further capacity closures by some big integrated producers in the next 30 to 60 days.
After recycled linerboard prices increased in parts of Europe this week, one Wall Street analyst said that the “power of the big boys seems to be becoming increasingly evident globally.”
Mergers and acquisitions
Since July, Smurfit Kappa acquired WestRock to become the No2 largest producer by containerboard capacity in North America and the No1 in Europe, and IP acquired DS Smith to retain its No1 capacity position in North America and take on a No2 capacity position in Europe.
US linerboard prices now have increased three times by a total of $120 per ton since February 2024. Market buyers and sellers described the increases as “unique” — with corrugated box demand less of a factor than ongoing inflationary cost pressure. Each of the three increases were proposed at $70 per ton for linerboard and each of the three increases since February 2024 settled at $40 per ton, according to Fastmarkets’ monthly pricing survey. The increases were in February and June 2024, and now this month.
One integrated producer called costs for old corrugated containers and freight as lower today and only labor was higher priced, compared with a year prior.
“The price increase was a lot more understandable last year than it is this year,” one end-user company spokesperson said.
“The fundamentals don’t make sense at all for an increase,” an independent boxmaker in the Midwest said.
In the box marketplace this week, contacts told of less-than-strong demand. Most told of better-than-expected January demand and then slower-than-anticipated February output at their plants.
“The market is soft to stable,” one box buyer for a large end-user company said.
“Box suppliers all clamor for any opportunity for additional business,” the buyer added, mirroring what several other end-user companies said.
“We will be pushing back on any increases on linerboard,” a small end-user company contact said.
“Currently, the market is too loose to force the issue in the open market,” a linerboard supplier said.
In a carbon copy of the $40-per-ton linerboard price increase in February 2024, when 55% of the buyers and sellers surveyed reported higher pricing, the same survey result occurred this week. A total of 55% of buyers and sellers reported higher linerboard pricing now vs the previous month, ranging from $30 per ton to $70 per ton. Along with the 55% reporting higher pricing, 10% reported lower linerboard prices this month from the previous and 35% reported flat prices or no change for February from January’s level.
Some producer contacts left open the possibility of further price gains in March, but they were in the minority, as most viewed the increase this month as a one-time event.
“Customers are waiting on tariffs to decide whether to buy, so we think there could be a pent-up demand condition by the spring,” one contact with a large integrated company said.
Trump is expected to decide on tariffs for imports from Canada and Mexico in a few weeks. Both countries have also spoken of retaliatory tariffs on US goods to their countries.
Various box plant operators and officials this week also said they received calls from European producers who made offers. Europeans mostly ship white top linerboard into the US, but contacts confirmed that the latest offers were for brown linerboard, mostly recycled.
“These guys have a lot of tons, and business is not so good in their own country,” one contact of producers in Turkey said.
US and Mexican contacts also mentioned Turkey as looking to sell tons.
US containerboard imports
In terms of US imports for 2024, most were from Canada. Canada exported 1.05 million tonnes of containerboard to the US.
Overall containerboard imports into the US totaled 1.27 million tonnes (1.40 million short tons) in 2024. The US containerboard import total was up 10.8% in 2024 from 2023’s total. That means imports represented about 2.7% of US containerboard production.
Canada’s exports to the US last year were 632,000 tonnes of recycled linerboard and 236,000 tonnes of kraft linerboard, according to trade statistics.
Five-year linerboard price movement in North America
With this month’s increase of $40 per ton for linerboard in North America, the 42-lb level is up in price by 30% since year-end 2019. Since the end of 2019, US corrugated box demand shot up by a 27-year high of almost 6% in two years, due to the COVID stay-at-home influence, and linerboard prices rose $220 per ton across four increases in 17 months. North American linerboard prices then declined by $120 per ton during a destocking effort that lasted about one and a half years, through year-end 2023. Prices then increased by $40 per ton in each of February 2024, June 2024 and February 2025, based on the Fastmarkets monthly pricing survey.
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