Options bets up to $12,000 are fueling copper’s red-hot rise

Copper traders are starting to place bets that the metal will hit $12,000 per tonne by December but market makers say bullishly positioned options are dragging the metal's price higher sooner than that.

Targeting March expiry, traders have placed 1,970 lots of call options at $9,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, giving the holder the right to buy the metal if that level is hit; a further 700 lots are placed at $9,500 per tonne on the LME’s Select system.

“The market is just being pulled to the strike price, the option sellers will have to buy and borrow the spread and the position is bigger than the entire LME stocks,” Malcolm Freeman, chief executive officer of options broking specialists Kingdom Futures, told Fastmarkets referring to a scenario known as a “gamma squeeze.”

Each lot represents 25 tonnes of copper metal, while positioning on the March $9,000 calls has been over 2,000 lots since the start of the year.

The LME three-month copper contract is heading for its biggest weekly gain since 2016, up 7.1% this week at $8,950 per tonne on Friday February 19.

Copper prices have risen sharply today, up 4% with 32,500 lots traded on the exchange.

Recently, options bets have been placed that the metal will hit $12,000 per tonne in July and December.

“We have been pricing up $9,000+ call strikes since the summer, more recently seeing interest out to $15,000. There is a good mix of conviction in the market whilst others are looking at lottery tickets,” StoneX head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulks Michael Cuoco said.

Rising copper prices come as visible stocks of the metal have dwindled due to growing electronics and housing demand. Available copper in LME warehouses amounts to 46,450 tonnes, the lowest in six months.

Meanwhile China Copper, the largest smelting group in China, plans to cut refined production faced with declining treatment and refining charges for concentrate, which have sunk over the past year as smelters expanded production faster than pandemic-hit mines could supply.

What to read next
Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry on the pricing methodology for its International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)-audited non-ferrous metals, via an open consultation process between October 8 and November 7, 2024. This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process.
It was already getting more difficult to source nickel qualified as compliant to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Under a future Donald Trump administration, it’s likely to get harder still, in the short-term at least.
Steelmakers that lag behind in decarbonization will be first to be phased out after green steel capacity rises to meet future demand, a senior advisor from a major Chinese steel company told delegates at the China Steel Industry Summit for 2025.
Aluminium market participants in the US anticipate stable business supported by continued tariffs and potential interest rate cuts, while industry sources in Europe and Latin America are watchful of potential new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump’s second term as US president is not likely to have too much of an impact on China’s electric vehicle (EV) and new energy markets, despite broader concerns over potential tariff hikes which might bring challenges to both China and the US, sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday November 7.
Chinese authorities officially announced that they will be expanding the range of permitted recycled copper and aluminium imports from mid-November, but market participants Fastmarkets spoke to at a conference this week are not convinced that this will mean more material will be imported into the country in the short run.