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Ahead of the November 5 US presidential election, Fastmarkets published a collection of quotes from market participants regarding their predictions for the contest.
Now that the election is settled and President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20, here’s what the market expects from his crucial first 100 days in office:
“In regard to Trump, we have a road map to some degree that shows you [Trump’s] policies have been positive for our steel industry. This time around, the potential of tariffs on Canada and Mexico are a new wrinkle which could drive prices very quickly should something be put in place. I think just the fact that buyers will have confidence in the market going forward – once they wake up to less imports and more consistent demand with new trade policies — will have a very positive impact on prices. It is just going to take a bit longer to get there.” – a steel producer
“What do you expect from the new administration in the first 100 days of 2025? Who knows. We have written a lot about the impact on Mexico and steel trade with our southern neighbor. I am now focusing how the US-Canada steel trade will be affected, especially the fluid automotive trade between the US and its northern neighbor.” – a midwestern distributor
“[The first 100 days will] probably be tariff-oriented, and I think [Trump will sign] an executive order to finish the border wall early on as well to stem the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico.” – a steel producer
“On the Trump [administration] impacts for the first 100 days, I’d say we should not expect any significant impact on demand as this is too short term for any regulation or permitting impacts to kick in. However, we should see some impacts on the supply side. Even if additional tariffs, quotas or other measures are not yet fully in place, I’d expect the market to anticipate them, which should be positive on pipe prices.” – a southern distributor
“I think there is still a lot of wait-and-see in the market. Certainly, the Trump administration is going to be pro-oil and gas, but the current oversupply situation won’t necessarily change in the first six months of next year and maybe not even by the end of next year.” – a southwestern tube producer
“Regarding Trump’s first 100 days as it applies to our industry, I expect immediate action to increase tariffs on all countries. As it pertains to Europe, I fully expect the European Union to cave to Trump… The EU will roll back or pause their unrealistic ‘CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) tax’ and offer more to Trump so they can continue selling to the US as the market in the EU has been TERRIBLE [sic] and getting worse as I type this to you.” – a US steel trader
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“If there are any tariffs, you will see semi-finished goods from China, Vietnam, etcetera, get put under the spotlight. I would expect a lot of threats, with most of them not coming to pass unless Canada and Mexico push back, which I doubt they will.” – a southern distributor
“Based on the coating cases and Trump tariffs, [my opinion] is that the market will have an increase of 5-10 cents per pound ($5-10 per hundredweight, or $100-200 per short ton) in the first half of next year.” – a US steel trader
“This [forthcoming Trump presidency] beats giving billions [of dollars in foreign aid] to a foreign country – for nothing tangible. While costs will go up, the reduction in [production] costs should be well offset by a huge reduction in social programs, for those that don’t need and have no business getting it.” – a northeastern distributor
“Most participants are cautious in the face of so much uncertainty and foremost with regard to the Trump administration trade policy, which will probably benefit the steel industry. Trump appointed [Jamieson] Greer as US Trade Representative [USTR]. He was chief of staff to the USTR Robert Lighthizer during the first Trump administration. Peter Navarro is also back [as senior counselor for trade and manufacturing]. Remember that Lighthizer and Navarro were the architects of Section 232. They are very knowledgeable about the steel industry. Knowing this and notwithstanding the CORE trade action, I do not understand why buyers do not start building up inventory because prices will rise quickly in the first quarter of 2025.” – a US steel trader
“Some customers are willing to book so they can receive before January 2025, to avoid any tariff hit to Mexico right [when] the Trump administration take position.”– a US steel trader
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