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Out go tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs), funding for charging infrastructure and US commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.
In comes oil, gasoline-powered cars and the potential addition of uranium to the country’s critical minerals list.
In a wide-ranging series of executive orders signed hours after his inauguration on Monday January 20, President Trump also ordered an immediate 90-day pause to funding under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, two signature pieces of former President Joe Biden’s administration.
Trump said he will also review and potentially tighten trade policies including Section 232 duties on imports of aluminium and steel, reassess the US strategic stockpile and push to produce non-fuel minerals, including rare earths.
The orders are still subject to review by the courts, and can therefore be overturned, while some of the orders will also require new lawmaking and can still be opposed by Congress. But they are a good indication of the way the new administration will approach critical minerals, trade and the environment.
It’s early days still, but a quick recap of executive orders demonstrates how significant Trump’s changes might be.
President Trump’s move to overturn the environment-friendly policies of the Biden administration, which focused on boosting US competitiveness in EV manufacturing and building out publicly funded charging infrastructure, did not come as a surprise.
Trump had for many months described Biden’s IRA as the “Green New Scam,” and threatened to rescind any unspent funds immediately.
That’s exactly what an executive order pledged.
“With my actions today, we will end the Green New Deal and we will revoke the EV mandate, saving our auto industry and keeping my sacred pledge to our great American autoworkers,” Trump said during his inauguration speech on Monday. “In other words, you’ll be able to buy the car of your choice,” he added, signing an executive order to this effect later that day.
Technically, there is no “mandate” related to EV; consumers can buy any car they like. But tax credits have incentivized EV sales, as a rush to take advantage of subsidies before Trump took office recently demonstrated.
Trump’s executive orders also eliminated several planned vehicle emissions standards, effectively giving the green light to automakers to move away from EV production targets.
Whether that happens or not remains to be seen. Billions have already been spent by the automotive sector on the development of EV, including on retraining workers and building out joint venture plants with battery manufacturers and other partners.
While EV sales have slowed in the US, unwinding investment in them entirely is unlikely – particularly as automakers know that the rules could potentially change again in four years after the next US election.
Aside from EV, however, there are reasons to believe the end to the IRA may not be a done deal. That’s because the vast majority of projects, jobs created and project values are located in Republican states, and their potential halt or even slowdown would likely have serious economic and growth consequences.
There is some commonality between the Trump and Biden administration’s policies for critical minerals, the executive orders show.
In a continuation of the Biden administration’s push to secure supply chains and diversify away from a reliance on nations including China, an executive order announced a plan to boost production of non-fuel minerals, including rare earths.
That’s been a central tenet of the Biden administration’s work in critical minerals and a foundation point around which the IRA was focused. It is not yet clear where financing to boost non-fuel minerals output will come from if funds from the IRA are permanently rescinded.
There are also plans to expedite permitting, something that has been a longstanding challenge of the natural resources sector and the Biden administration alike.
The focus is on oil and gas, with “drill, baby, drill,” a constant refrain during Trump’s election campaign and before taking office. That means initial work will likely be focused on encouraging exploration and production of oil and gas on federal lands and waters.
But there was also mention in an executive order of better geologic mapping, permitting and project financing for critical minerals – although no mention of where the funding would come from. This will include Alaska, home to sizeable copper, zinc, lead, nickel and gold reserves, among other minerals.
The US will also look at assisting the work of mining and refining countries in mineral-wealthy nations and taking “all appropriate steps to ensure that the National Defense Stockpile will provide a robust supply of critical minerals in event of future shortfall,” according to an executive order.
Allies could also play a role within the US mining and processing sector. According to an executive order, opportunities to work domestically with Australia, India and Japan will be considered.
There is also a provision to assess the national security implications of US mineral reliance and the potential for trade action, the executive order says.
While there has been considerably rhetoric on tariffs, nothing new has materialized — yet.
Trump has previously said he would immediately impose a 25% tax on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico, with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, taking those tariffs up to 60%.
He has also talked about a 10% universal tariff on all goods imported into the US, which he said would raise billions to reduce the deficit and allow the government to pay for social and industrial programs.
But it’s only the first week, and trade is certainly central to Trump’s policy stage. He has already announced plans to create an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariff monies and said during an Oval Office signing ceremony on Monday that he might impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico from February 1.
He is also looking at past trade policies to see where changes might be required. For instance, one executive order pledged to review and assess the effectiveness of the exclusions, exemptions and other import adjustment measures on steel and aluminium.
The US steel sector has broadly welcomed the idea of tariffs on its neighbors; Mexico and Canada, not so much.
Aluminium market participants are generally concerned at the prospect.
Right now, it’s hard to assess what all of this mean for the minerals used in the energy transition, including lithium, cobalt and nickel in batteries for EV, and copper in infrastructure charging and renewables.
Battery chemistries may change as the economics of minerals production play out, while the move away from EV could hit demand.
At the same time, a push to build national stockpiles and speed up permitting would increase supply, although it is unclear where project financing will come from if the IRA ends permanently.
Tit-for-tat trade wars could also crimp supplies of some minerals; restrictions have been in place on other minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite.
The new Trump administration begins, and policies impacting metals and mining are set to be at its heart.
In Hotter Commodities, special correspondent Andrea Hotter covers some of the biggest stories impacting the natural resources sector. Read more coverage on our dedicated Hotter Commodities page here.