In Part 1 we discussed supply-chain disruption, reduced demand and weak momentum in raw materials markets. The US-China trade war has also caused potential opportunities generated by this trade protection wave.
New markets exploration
The trade tensions have prompted Asian ferro-alloy producers to explore new markets. Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa offer growing demand for steel and ferro-alloys. According to sources, this is driven by infrastructure development and industrialization.
In Asia, China, India and Malaysia are top ferro-alloys producers. While China, Japan and South Korea are big consumers, sources said.
“Rising steel capacity in Southeast Asian nations or expanding investment in Middle East and Africa may use an increasing volume of ferro-alloys, which can partially offset the loss generated in traditional steel-producing countries which are at the center of the trade tension,” one international ferro-alloy trader told Fastmarkets.
“Around 30 million tonnes of crude steel capacity will be added in Southeast Asian nations in 10 years to meet local demand – that needs an estimated 1 million tonnes of ferro-alloys,” an industry analyst said. “Then it will benefit manganese alloys, ferro-chrome, tungsten and vanadium exports from nearby Asian producers for close transportation and cost consideration.”
In addition to emerging markets, the trade tensions could spur ferro-alloys demand in the US itself, according to one Indian ferro-chrome producer.
“The Sino-US trade tension means more stainless steel will be produced in US,” the producer source said. “Then the US will need to import more ferro-chrome. I think it is also the same for other ferro-alloys.”
Increased domestic demand
Many Asian countries such as India are investing heavily in infrastructure and manufacturing. This has boosted domestic demand for steel and ferro-alloys. It provides a buffer against export market volatility, sources said.
“Trade is moving from globalization to localization, so we think this year there is going to be a big focus on localization of steel products in India. Thus, demand for ferro-alloys shall be good here,” an Indian ferro-alloy supplier told Fastmarkets.
According to World Steel Association, India produced 26.4 million tonnes of crude steel in the first two months of 2025. This is up by 6.8% year on year and follows growth of 6.3% year on year in 2024 crude steel output.
“The manganese alloy market in India remained robust in the first quarter of 2025, with rising demand from the downstream steel sector,” a manganese source in India said.
India’s ambitious expansion plans for the stainless steel sector over the next two decades have the potential to spur demand for local ferro-chrome, according to sources.
India aims to expand the stainless steel capacity to 9.3 million-9.5 million tonnes by 2030; then to 12.5 million-12.7 million tonnes by 2040; and finally to 19 million-20 million tonnes by 2047, according to a report published by Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA).
A Japanese ferro-chrome source told Fastmarkets in mid-March that “ferro-chrome demand in India has been going up, therefore we received higher offers and reduced shipments from Indian suppliers in recent months.”
Shifts to sustainable development
The push for sustainability and efficiency has spurred transformation in the ferro-alloys industry. Asian companies are investing in advanced technology such as green and energy-efficient production methods. This can reduce costs, improve competitiveness and reduce carbon emissions for sustainable development, according to sources.
“China is the largest ferro-alloy producer and consumer in the world,” a ferro-manganese producer in China told Fastmarkets. “And the country is almost taking a lead in green development [of the ferro-alloy industry].”
Several ferro-alloy smelters in China, which are producing ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese, silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, have obtained green certificates. This move adds competitiveness when these materials are supplied to local and international buyers, according to sources.
“With export limitations from the US or other countries, there are still chances for China’s steel exports to enter European markets which need low-carbon-emission products produced from low-carbon footprint raw materials,” the ferro-manganese source said.
“Although green ferro-alloys in China haven’t realized premiums over traditional products, the reduced carbon efforts are still adding value to local sales or exports,” a source noted.
Fastmarkets ferro-alloy price assessments
Fastmarkets’ weekly green ferro-alloy domestic, ferro-chrome 6-8% C, 50% Cr, differential to FeCr assessment, ddp China remained at zero yuan per tonne on March 25, unchanged from its launch on October 29, 2024.
Weekly green ferro-alloy domestic, ferro-chrome 6-8% C, 50% Cr, weekly inferred price, ddp China was 7,800-8,000 yuan (($1,074-1,101) per tonne on the same day, up 100 yuan compared with 7,700-7,900 yuan per tonne one week prior.
Similarly, Fastmarkets’ weekly green ferro-alloy domestic, ferro-manganese max 7% C, 65% Mn min, differential to FeMn assessment, in-whs China remained at zero yuan per tonne on Friday March 28, unchanged since its launch on November 1, 2024.
Fastmarket’s weekly green ferro-alloy domestic, ferro-manganese max 7% C, 65% Mn min, weekly inferred price, in-whs China was 5,400-5,600 yuan per tonne on the same day, down 50-100 yuan from 5,500-5,650 yuan per tonne on March 21.
Regional trade agreements
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other trade agreements in Asia are creating new opportunities for intra-regional trade. These agreements can facilitate ferro-alloy producers to access larger markets with reduced tariffs and trade barriers, sources said.
The RCEP agreement covers 15 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, accounting for 47.4% of the global population, 32.2% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and 29.1% of global total trade volumes, according to sources.
“I suppose the signing of the RCEP agreement can be conducive to Chinese steel and ferro-alloys enterprises further expanding the Asia-Pacific market, especially when China is embroiled in the trade war with US now,” a China-based rebar source told Fastmarkets.
As well, China has signed regional or bilateral free trade agreements with RCEP countries including Japan and reached certain tariff reduction agreements, sources noted.
“Under the RCEP agreement, China’s exports of steel and ferro-alloys products to Japan will increase significantly due to the decline in export tax rates, which helps China further open up the market and undoubtedly a great opportunity for China’s steel and ferro-alloys exporting business,” a second China-based rebar source said.
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