US ferrous scrap market torn between tight supply, tame demand

The US ferrous scrap market remains in limbo ahead of August’s ferrous trade, with participants divided as to whether summer demand from the domestic and export markets will tip the balance of extremely low scrap flows in US sellers’ favor next month

Reports of extremely low ferrous scrap collection rates amid sellers continue to proliferate, giving hope to sellers that cut grades are due for an increase.

“Once scrap prices get as low are they are now, it just doesn’t pay for people to bring it in — gas prices are also high, so there’s very little impetus,” an East Coast seller with domestic and export capabilities said of the current market.

Ferrous scrap export market

Two fresh deep-sea export deals to Turkey from European shippers were heard in a band of $351-353 per tonne CFR for an 80:20 mix of No1 and No2 heavy melting scrap on Monday, July 24 — equivalent to $356-358 per tonne CFR for US origin material — suggesting that the export market to Turkey has more or less stabilized.

Turkey increased its July tally of US deep-sea ferrous scrap cargoes — albeit at incrementally lower prices — to five in the week ended July 21, after a sluggish start to the month.

Prices for heavily-exported No1 heavy melt and shredded scrap were $310 per gross ton and $400 per gross ton in the export-influenced Philadelphia market in July — sideways month on month.

With the last US export sales to Turkey pegged at $354.50-355 per tonne CFR for HMS 1&2 (80:20) and freights for the route most recently assessed at $22-24 per tonne, prices for HMS in that region for August would have to increase by approximately $20 per gross ton at least to be remotely competitive with export in August’s trade.

Domestic ferrous scrap prices

Conversely, the last US export sales of shred were made at $374.50-375 per tonne CFR over the period versus a domestic price of $400 per gross ton in that region; suggestions are that domestic prices for cut grades in that market will need to rise to redress the balance.

Domestic mills are currently out of the discipline of ‘furnace optimization’ and will instead focus on prioritizing the cost effectiveness of their melt rather than production and order fulfilment, increasing demand for cuts and turnings where possible, sources said.

“Export prices are off $30 per tonne, approximately on the high — I wouldn’t be offering or taking any cuts at down money. We are at the bottom of the market, but it’s going to drag bottom for a while,” a seller with a presence in the US Southeast told Fastmarkets.

The summer doldrums are having an effect on prime and shredded scrap generation amid the traditional season for auto production shutdowns.

But since sentiment for hot-rolled coil prices in the US remains weak, there are still questions surrounding the trajectory of prime and shredded scrap in August, despite reportedly tight availability of those grades.

Navigate the complex steel markets with our reliable and market-reflective steel price data and transparent pricing methodology. Learn more.

What to read next
On September 25, the discontinuation was postponed from the originally scheduled final publication to take into account the needs of market participants that still had physical contracts linked to the lithium contract assessments in place. The affected prices are:• MB-LI-0031Lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, contract price cif China, Japan & Korea• MB-LI-0027Lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery […]
Fastmarkets will not publish any price assessments for US animal fats and oils; animal proteins; biomass-based diesel; hide and leather; grain and feed ingredients; organic/non-GMO; and vegetable oils, on Wednesday December 25.
Gain a competitive edge in logistics with our in-depth look into pallet prices and the factors driving market changes in 2024.
Fastmarkets has corrected its assessment of AG-FML-0007 Feathermeal, fob Alabama/Georgia, $/short ton, which was published incorrectly on Tuesday December 17, 2024. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated.
Fastmarkets confirms it will discontinue its lithium contract assessments after their final publication date of Tuesday, December 24.
On Tuesday December 10, 2024, Fastmarkets published its MB-STE-0232 Steel scrap No1 busheling, consumer buying price, delivered mill Chicago, $/gross ton.This price is part of the Fastmarkets Scrap package. For more information on our North America Ferrous Scrap methodology and specifications please click here. To get in touch about access to this price assessment, please contact customer.success@fastmarkets.com.