The USDA attaché boosts Argentina’s wheat and corn production estimates

The boost to the outlook is due to higher than expected yields and larger planted areas, compared to the drought-affected 2022/23 year

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s attaché in Argentina has increased its outlook for the country’s wheat and corn production in the 2023/24 marketing year, while barley output projections were unchanged.  

The primary reason for the gain in the wheat projection is that yields were higher in the final phase of than harvest than expected earlier, according to the report.

Wheat production in the South American country is expected to total 15.4 million tonnes in 2023/24, up 400,000 tonnes from the 15 million tonnes expected in the most recent edition of the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report (Wasde) that was issued on January 12.

Argentina’s farmers are expected to harvest 12 million tonnes of wheat in 2022/23, which is down from the 12.55 million tonnes estimated in the Wasde report.

The USDA’s Buenos Aries office also increased its 2023/24 export estimates, revising the total volume for 2023/24 to 10.2 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes higher than was projected in the Wasde.

Exports are expected to be 179% higher than the 3.662 million tonnes seen in 2022/23 when drought slashed output.  

The average wheat yield for 2023/24 is expected to come in at 2.8 tonnes per hectare, up from the Wasde forecast of 2.7273 tonnes per hectare, and the yield for 2022/23 is seen coming in at 2.1858 tonnes per hectare, down from an estimated 2.2828 tonnes per hectar.

Corn

USDA’s Buenos Aires office projects the country will produce 57 million tonnes of corn in 2023/24, which is 2 million tonnes higher than projected in the Wasde, and substantially higher than the 35 million tonnes output that the office projected for 2022/23. 

The report noted that the primary reason for the increase in the projection was the larger planted area than earlier expected, and added that “crop conditions to date are very good with beneficial weather forecast in the months to come.”

Argentina is expected to export 41 million tonnes of corn in 2023/24, which is identical to what was projected in the most recent Wasde.  

Exports in 2022/23 are expected to total 23.4 million tonnes, which is up 400,000 tonnes from the Wasde estimate. 

Barley

Argentina’s 2023/24 barley production is expected to total 5 million tonnes, unchanged from the January Wasde, while 2022/23 output is projected at 4.5 million tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the same report.

Barley exports are expected to total 3.2 million tonnes in 2023/24, unchanged from the Wasde estimate, while the 2022/23 projection was steady at 2.857 million tonnes.

What to read next
US corn sales for the 2024-25 season were reported at 1.65 million tonnes in the week to February 6, up by 12% from the previous week and by 20% from the prior four-week average, landing within the USDA’s expected range of 800,000-1.7 million tonnes, USDA data showed on Thursday, February 13. Much of the increase […]
Brazilian corn exports amounted to 3.59 million tonnes in January, down by 26.3% from the same month last year. Meanwhile, soybean shipments fell by 62.4% to 1.07 million tonnes, according to customs weekly data on Monday, February 10. In January last year, Brazil exported 4.87 million tonnes of corn and 2.85 million tonnes of soybeans. […]
Investors in the US corn and soybean markets trimmed shorts while amassing longs in the week to Tuesday January 14, pushing the corn net long to the highest-level since May 2022 and moving soybeans from a net short to a net long for the first time in more than a year, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed late on Friday January 17.
Fastmarkets launched AG-WHE-0058 Wheat 10.5% fob US Gulf SRW wheat $/mt on January 6, 2025.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has disrupted Syria's grain imports, creating uncertainty in trade with Russia.
The recently concluded EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement, after 25 years of negotiation, is expected to have limited immediate impact on South American agricultural exports to Europe.