World grain production forecast cut by 2 million tonnes

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreases its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreased its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year by 2 million tonnes to 2.29 billion tonnes, which it said reflected recent dry weather.

The forecast remained above the 2022-23 marketing year when total grains production fell 39 million tonnes to 2.25 billion tonnes, with the rebound in current marketing year production driven by a projected larger corn crop.

The IGC raised their 2023-24 total grains consumption projection month-on-month by 4 million tonnes to 2.31 billion tonnes, driven by a large month-on-month increase in projected wheat consumption.

The report projects carryover stocks to fall further to 577 million tonnes from 580 million tonnes in the last report due to increased global consumption.

The grains trade projection for 2023-24 was raised unchanged from the previous update at 408 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes year-on-year.

Corn production

The corn production forecast was cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.21 billion tonnes, marking a 58 million tonnes increase year-on-year, while the consumption estimate was also cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.2 billion tonnes.

View our corn prices.

Wheat production

The IGC raised the wheat production projection for 2023-24 by 3 million tonnes from the previous report to 786 million tonnes, a 17 million tonnes decrease from the previous year, while wheat consumption forecasts were increased by 8 million tonnes from the last forecast to 803 million tonnes.

The wheat trade projection was set at 197 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the May report but down 6 million tonnes from last year.

In terms of oilseeds, the soybean production projection was cut by 1 million mt from the last update to 402 million tonnes.

Learn more about our wheat prices.

Soy production

The soybean consumption projection for 2023-24 was unchanged from the last report at 389 million tonnes, marking a 27 million tonnes increase from 2022-23.

Finally, the soybeans trade forecast was decreased by 1 million tonnes from the previous report to 172 million tonnes but still 4 million tonnes higher the last year’s figure.

For more information on the current grain market, take a look at our dedicated page for grain market news.

What to read next
Investors in the US corn and soybean markets trimmed shorts while amassing longs in the week to Tuesday January 14, pushing the corn net long to the highest-level since May 2022 and moving soybeans from a net short to a net long for the first time in more than a year, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed late on Friday January 17.
Fastmarkets launched AG-WHE-0058 Wheat 10.5% fob US Gulf SRW wheat $/mt on January 6, 2025.
Fastmarkets has corrected its AG-SYB-0078 Crush Margin China Soy (Brazil) M1 Yuan/mt; AG-SYB-0079 Crush Margin China Soy (US Gulf) M1 Yuan/mt; and AG-SYB-0082 Crush Margin US Soy M1 c$/bu for the period between December 2-13, 2024, which were published incorrectly due to a procedure lapse error. Fastmarkets has also corrected its AG-SYB-0078 Crush Margin China Soy (Brazil) M1 Yuan/mt and AG-SYB-0079 Crush Margin China Soy (US Gulf) M1 Yuan/mt for November 20 and November 29, 2024, which were published incorrectly due to a typo.
Fastmarkets will publish price assessments for US animal fats and oils, animal proteins, biomass-based diesel, hide and leather, grain and feed ingredients, organic/non-GMO and vegetable oils at 12:00pm Central time on Tuesday December 31 due to the early closure of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ahead of the New Year holiday.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has disrupted Syria's grain imports, creating uncertainty in trade with Russia.
The recently concluded EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement, after 25 years of negotiation, is expected to have limited immediate impact on South American agricultural exports to Europe.