Renewable diesel: Capacity and production outlook in South America and the US + short-term price forecasts

Global used cooking oil (UCO) prices were highly volatile throughout 2024 amid market uncertainty, trade flow and policy changes, with market sources expecting the prices to increase further in 2025, pushed up by higher demand and increased biofuel production obligations.

In December, increased demand from various industries led to a 5-10% rise in EU animal fats prices, supported by high seasonal rendering activity and regulatory factors affecting vegetable oil supply.

Africa’s increasing air travel demand and biofuel production potential, alongside the Middle East’s strategic SAF investments, position both regions as key players in advancing global aviation decarbonization efforts.

The US feedstock and biodiesel industries face significant uncertainty due to potential policy changes, including pending import tariffs, the transition from the Blenders Tax Credit to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, and delayed federal guidance.

What if the success of your biofuel operations hinged on a single variable—tallow prices?

Fastmarkets will publish price assessments for US animal fats and oils, animal proteins, biomass-based diesel, hide and leather, grain and feed ingredients, organic/non-GMO and vegetable oils at 12:00pm Central time on Tuesday December 31 due to the early closure of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ahead of the New Year holiday.